(Source: San Jose Mercury News)

By John Boudreau, San Jose Mercury News, Calif.
Nov. 4--Cisco Systems CEO John Chambers, buoyed by better than expected
quarterly revenue and profits, became the latest high-tech chief to point to
an economic rebound, saying growth finally appears to be nosing in an upward
trajectory.
"The initial phase of recovery is well underway," Chambers said Wednesday
during a conference call with analysts.
But Cisco's first-quarter financial picture reflected the grim reality of
the drawn-out recession. Revenue and profits fell from the same period a year
ago, although they both beat Wall Street's diminished expectations. The San
Jose networking giant said profits in the first quarter were $1.8 billion, or
30 cents a share, a 19 percent drop from $2.2 billion, or 37 cents a share for
the same period a year ago. Revenue for the quarter, which ended Oct. 24, was
$9 billion, a 13 percent slip from the year-ago quarter.
The company's revenue picture, though, was better than the 15 to 17
percent decline it had forecast this summer. Excluding one-time expenses,
Cisco pulled in profits of 36 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson
Reuters had forecast a profit of 31 cents a share on sales of $8.75 billion.
Because Cisco sells high-priced technology to large companies around the
globe, it is able to gauge how executives view their economic health. "People
listen to him," said Broadpoint AmTech analyst Mark McKechnie. "He's been
through enough economic cycles."
Chambers also predicted sales growth
for the first time in a year, saying it would be up 1 to 4 percent for
the current quarter, but he held off giving details of how he sees next year
unfolding.
"It was slightly better than what we were looking for," said Bill Choi,
an analyst at Jefferies & Co. "No one is sticking their neck out and talking
about 2010 yet. Investors shouldn't read too much into the fact that the Cisco
CEO is not able to give much color on 2010. Even a company of Cisco's breadth
isn't ready to talk about that yet."
Cisco has shown confidence in a rebounding economy by going on a spending
spree. Just last month, it announced plans to buy Starent Networks, a maker of
equipment for wireless carriers, for $2.9 billion, and dished out another $3
billion to merge with Norway-based Tandberg. It also announced a $183 million
deal to acquire Web-security firm ScanSafe. Even as the downturn has caused
the company to slash thousands of jobs, Cisco is aggressively pivoting into
new markets, particularly in computer servers, where it is going head-to-head
with erstwhile partners Hewlett-Packard and IBM, and consumer gadgets.
Chambers said the company's third quarter "felt like the bottom" and
called its fourth quarter the "tipping" point for the economic turn-around.
"The recovery is now occurring," he said. "I believe Q1 was a positive
proof point."
Chambers, though, said uncertainties remained, such as whether the
economy will continue to gain steam and if hiring will return to pre-recession
levels.
"If we get surprised, and there is always a possibility we might, we will
adjust," he said. "It's important expectations do not get ahead of realities."
The company also said its board of directors authorized up to $10 billion
in additional share repurchases, bringing Cisco's outstanding repurchasing
program to about $13.1 billion.
In after-hours trading, Cisco shares edged up 68 cents, or 2.92 percent,
to $23.93. They closed regular trading at $23.29, up 38 cents or 1.66 percent.
Contact John Boudreau at 408-278-3496.
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