Nov. 6--The upcoming Christmas season is supposed to be tough going for retail, analysts have said.

Sales are expected to be better than last year, but economists doubt whether they will do enough to pull many stores out of their recession-induced malaise.

A glimmer of hope has emerged recently. National statistics showed some encouraging signs in October.

With retailers making an early push for holiday-minded shoppers, the next couple of months could wind up better than expected, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

"Black Friday" sales will attract hordes of shoppers, although many of them will focus more on bargains, said ICSC economist Michael Niemira.

Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, is typically one of the busiest retail days of the year.

"Bargain hunting will continue to be an important element of the consumers' holiday shopping strategy," Niemira said. "Despite what consumers now expect, (we) think the holiday spending performance will be better than these pre-season consumer expectations, which is often the case following business cycle turning points in the economy."

The turning point Niemira referred to was the eight weeks of consecutive year-over-year sales improvements among 32 of the largest chain stores in the country.

For the weeks ending Oct. 17, 24 and 31, the sales index improved 1.9, 2.4 and 2.8 percent respectively, according to ICSC.

Some big chains already are trying to seize on the momentum. Sears, Walmart and Kmart all are offering Black Friday specials nearly a month prior to Nov. 27. Verizon is releasing its latest smart phone today (see related story).

Even though there will be an emphasis on bargains this Christmas, consumer cravings for more material items seem to be reemerging. The latest trends out of Wall Street are a big reason for it, according to ICSC.

"The improvement in the stock market has had a significant impact on the affluent shopper's willingness to spend as the luxury market has shown its first positive reading since May 2008," Niemira said.

Reporter Tony Holt can be reached at 352-544-5283 or wholt@hernandotoday.com.

TOPICS IN THIS ARTICLE

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