logo


EDITORIAL: Warren Buffett's crystal ball
Wednesday, November 04, 2009 1:53 PM


(Source: The Dallas Morning News)trackingBy The Dallas Morning News

Nov. 4--Whenever the legendary Oracle of Omaha tosses his considerable wealth behind an investment, the rest of us should also try to gaze over his shoulder into his crystal ball. Warren Buffett isn't known for placing many losing bets.

But Buffett also is known for extraordinary financial insight, and his multibillion-dollar investment to acquire the rest of Fort Worth-based Burlington Northern Santa Fe provides an intriguing glimpse into the future of world and U.S. economies.

Some of it is good; some of it is troubling.

For one thing, Buffett expects a booming China to continue to burn coal, despite climate-change concerns, in order to produce the consumer goods Americans have come to rely on. He's also betting that coal will remain a major part of America's energy mix for the foreseeable future as the country's main source of electricity. Taken together, this is an impressive endorsement of America's future economic prowess.

However, if you had hoped the U.S. would move more swiftly away from its dependence on dirty coal for electricity -- or that China would dramatically clean up its coal plants -- Buffett's move suggests the opposite.

Why? The purchase is a massive wager on coal. About half of Burlington Northern's cargo is coal, and coal accounts for a lot of the rail company's revenue. It's hard to imagine Buffett making this wager if he believed the U.S. economy wasn't recovering or that pending climate-change legislation in Congress would dramatically reduce coal consumption.

There are other implications. If Buffett's investment instincts are right, the rest of us should brace for pain from higher oil and gas prices. As oil and gas prices rise, and road congestion increases, rail becomes an increasingly attractive alternative to long-haul trucking, especially for transporting such commodities as coal, wheat and lumber and imported finished goods from West Coast ports to the Midwest. By, in effect, doubling his bet on rail, Buffett almost certainly believes Burlington Northern will be positioned to take advantage of rising fuel prices.

For Dallas, the Buffett deal is especially good news. It affirms the growing resurgence of connected rail and truck hubs like the International Inland Port of Dallas. Near a strategic intersection of three interstate highways and the Union Pacific and Burlington Northern rail lines in southern Dallas, the inland port is projected to be a major regional employer and catalyst for economic development south of the Trinity River.

Buffett has seen the future and is betting that it will burn brightly. As his immense wealth would attest, he's rarely wrong.

-----

To see more of The Dallas Morning News, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.dallasnews.com.

Copyright (c) 2009, The Dallas Morning News

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

A service of YellowBrix, Inc.



(0)
No Comments
Post Comment
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
   
 
 
 
 
   
 

  
Related Press Releases
Advertisement
Popular Articles
Advertisement
Partner Center
Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, market data is provided by AlphaTrade. , and Commentary and Press Releases provided by Quotemedia