Nov. 8--'Clear as mud" is how Stockton Mayor Ann Johnston described her understanding of the latest cost estimates for the newly opened Stockton Marina.

Clear as mud is being charitable.

Last month, city officials projected a $700,000 annual loss from the marina.

That set some City Council members, not to mention many Stocktonians, howling since an earlier estimate showed the city would lose only -- words used advisedly -- $100,000 a year.

The council demanded answers, possibly someone's head, because that $700,000 cost would have to come directly out of the city's already-over-subscribed general fund. Which is a way of saying there's no there in there.

Last Tuesday, the council got its answer. Rather, it got an answer.

The earlier project had been blamed on a faulty cost analysis. Now city officials say the difference in the projected costs is due to financing changes and more conservative revenue projections calculated this year.

If that's unclear, things got even more opaque the more it was explained.

Last year's cost analysis severely underestimated operational costs. It assumed the city would operate the marina.

That was determined to be undoable by Revitalization Director Dave Harzoff, who joined the city in January.

The council then hired an Encino company to run the facility. But it wasn't hiring an outside company that drove up costs, either, officials told the council.

The difference in the earlier deficit of $100,000 and the $700,000 involved a decision not to shift -- as planned -- money from a redevelopment account to the marina, a different accounting of annual debt payments made on a state loan used to build the $22 million marina, and revenue projections made less optimistic.

In other words, it's all bookkeeping?

Now the city estimates the marina will lose $211,758 in the current fiscal year (just how officials came to such a precise number is a matter for another day, and the figure does not include debt service), improving to break-even in 2011. After that, there will be annual profits generated.

Mark your calendar. When the city actually turns a profit on one of its downtown venues, it will be a red letter day indeed.

Things are starting off slowly at the marina. As of last week, only four boat slips had been leased.

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