Nov. 8--Plenty of reasons to temper our optimism

BY TOM WALSH FREE PRESS COLUMNIST

November began with a daily dose of hope for greater Detroit:

--Monday, Ford Motor Co. posted a $1-billion third-quarter profit, making money on its core North American operations after 17 consecutive quarterly losses.

--Tuesday, Dave Bing was elected to a full term as mayor of Detroit and five promising new faces won seats on the City Council.

--Wednesday, Chrysler Group emerged from a 5-month hibernation with CEO Sergio Marchionne flashing supremo confidence in his 5-year revival plan.

--Thursday, Southfield-based auto supplier Lear Corp. won approval to exit Chapter 11 bankruptcy after just a 4-month stay. Its order backlog is $1.3 billion and employment is 75,000 people.

Go ahead, take a quick sip in celebration; we won't send you off to the funny farm. Just put the juice quickly back in the cabinet, for a hard road and many dangers lie ahead.

A sobering reality check

For every reason to hope that the battered Detroit region has survived the worst and is en route to recovery, Newton's Third Law seems to apply: "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction."

Feeling good about Ford Motor Co.'s $1-billion third-quarter profit? Well, the same day Ford reported that boffo news, the UAW announced that 70% of its workers rejected a deal to give Ford the same contract concessions that rivals General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC had won in bankruptcy. Ouch.

Elated that Dave Bing is back as mayor and that no-nonsense emergency manager Robert Bobb will extend his watch over Detroit Public Schools? Just one look at the gaping budget holes facing the city and schools, exacerbated by still-declining property values, will sober you up in a hurry.

And how about Chrysler?

For all those impressed with CEO Sergio Marchionne's energy and moxie -- virtually everyone who's met him or seen the guy speak -- there is a countervailing unanimity among auto industry experts that Chrysler has dug itself into such a deep hole, and faces such a fierce pack of competitors, that its future remains in doubt.

One way to look at it

So, how should one think about the future of Detroit?

I'm currently reading Neil Sheehan's new book, "A Fiery Peace in a Cold War," a history of the arms race and the parallel struggle for economic supremacy between the United States and Soviet Union following World War II. I can't help comparing the challenges of GM and Chrysler today, post-bankruptcy, with those of post-WWII Europe.