Nov. 9--MIAMIHERALD.COM/METRO: See a gallery of shoppers scoping out deals around town.

Henry Leace, the owner of Havana Nines, is feeling hopeful for the first time in a year.

The Miami-based chain known for its Latin apparel has seen sales jump almost 20 percent during the third quarter. But winning business back has taken aggressive discounting and a shift to more private label apparel. It's a strategy that Leace hopes will pay dividends at his 11 Havana Nines stores this holiday season.

"There's a resistance to full price everywhere," Leace said. "People want to see what's on sale. We had to be on the attack to make customers spend. We had to give them a reason."

Industry experts say a compelling value message is going to be one of the main motivators to get consumers spending this holiday season. But don't expect the wild 75 percent off discounts of last year, when retailers got caught with an inventory backlog and were forced to take major markdowns to get the merchandise off the shelves.

Retailers this year have planned better and slimmed down inventory in expectation of a sluggish holiday season. Forecasts are calling for a season that won't be great, but it's certainly going to look a lot better than last year's dismal performance.

The National Retail Federation, normally an optimistic industry cheerleader, this year is forecasting a 1 percent decline in sales. That's better than last year's 3.4 percent drop, but not anywhere near the average holiday seasonal 3.4 percent gain.

"While the increase in the stock market is great, we don't see it as being the savior of the holiday season," said Ellen Davis, a spokeswoman for the National Retail Federation. "Americans aren't ready to declare an end to the recession. Until they see jobs returning to their community, it will continue to be a challenging environment."

Other economists, Wall Street analysts and industry groups have slightly more optimistic views calling for sales anywhere from flat to up 1 or 2 percent.

"Consumers are getting a bit tired of having to save money," said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst with NPD Group. "They're begining to start opening up the purse strings and spend money. It's going to be cautious spending."

Brianna Drohen is one of those. The 26-year-old event planner has spent only about $100 all year on things for herself, after taking a 50-percent pay cut. But now she has a little extra cash and Thursday night she was on the hunt at T.J. Maxx for a dress. For the holidays she plans on shopping.

"The holidays are a time when you don't want to cut back," said Drohan of Miami.