(Source: Belfast Telegraph)

THERE was a glimmer of hope for Northern Ireland's economy today
as the latest Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report showed fewer
job losses and a slow-down in the decline of business activity.
While the report said business activity in the private sector
continued its downward spiral last month, the decline was the
slowest rate since the beginning of last year.
But margins were still under pressure, with input price inflation
the strongest for a year and output charges sharply reduced.
Richard Ramsey, chief economist at the Ulster Bank, said: "While
Northern Ireland's private sector continues to witness falling
levels of output and employment, five of the six indicators improved
during October. That said, Northern Ireland's levels of business
activity have now lagged the UK average for the last two years.
"The most encouraging aspect of the latest survey was the
significant easing in the rate of job losses. The pace of employment
decline has not been as sharp as the UK for the last five months.
"It is noted that back in February, almost 30% of Northern
Ireland firms reported falling levels of employment. Meanwhile, in
October, less than half this number were still signalling job
losses. This supports our view that the rate of increase in Northern
Ireland's official unemployment figures will continue to ease in the
fourth quarter of this year."
The Ulster Bank's report comes two weeks after surprise data
showing the UK was still in recession, defying hopes that a slow
recovery was in progress. Figures from the Office of National
Statistics said the economy shrank by 0.4% between July and
September, marking the UK's longest period in recession since 1945.
At a sector level, the PMI report showed UK and Northern Ireland
services firms continue to report falling employment levels at a
broadly similar rate.
One notable difference was within the manufacturing industry.
While UK firms in this sector continue to report significant job
losses, their Northern Ireland counterparts recorded modest
employment gains, Mr Ramsey said.
"This is expected to be temporary. After all, the squeeze on
profit margins, which intensified in October, is most acute within
the manufacturing sector," he added.
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