Nov. 9--For retailers, the holiday shopping season has begun.

For investors in consumer stocks, it's not so clear-cut.

Bright lights and evergreens decorate local stores, catalogs are beginning to fill mailboxes, and the movie "A Christmas Carol" opened Friday in the Milwaukee area.

But the early start doesn't mean anyone is expecting consumer-related stocks to light up their portfolios this holiday season.

"I think we'll see a slightly better year, although obviously still weaker than in an environment where employment is better," said Erika K. Maschmeyer, retail analyst in Robert W. Baird & Co.'s Chicago office.

Many consumer stocks have had a good run-up already this year. The Standard & Poor's 500 Consumer Discretionary Index has provided a total return of about 39 percent so far this year.

Bruce Olson, Marcus Theatres president, said his company is excited about the holiday movie season, with several new movies following the opening of "A Christmas Carol," including the highly anticipated "Avatar" and three openings on Christmas Day.

Clouding the picture for consumer stocks are concerns about high unemployment denting consumers' willingness and ability to spend.

"We're thinking at this point it will be more about stock picking and differentiating between which companies have sustainable foundations to take them forward," said Zach Newcomer, partner and senior research analyst at Red Granite Advisors LLC.

Newcomer and others say the 800-pound gorilla among Wisconsin's publicly traded, consumer-driven stocks is Kohl's Corp.

Kohl's shares have outperformed many of the indexes, climbing nearly 57 percent since Dec. 31. Kohl's held up better than many other retailers by keeping inventory tight and constantly improving merchandise, adding private and exclusive brands, Maschmeyer said.

"Their comparisons aren't as easy as some, but they are still executing very well," she said.

Johnson Outdoors, Marcus Corp. and Weyco Group are also among Wisconsin's publicly traded, consumer-related companies.

Less obvious is National Presto Industries Inc., an Eau Claire marketing and manufacturing conglomerate that makes small electrical appliances and housewares, ammunition, and private label diapers and adult incontinence products.

"They're just hitting the cover off the ball up there," said John F. Collopy, research director at Briggs-Ficks Securities LLC in Milwaukee.

Small appliances represent about 30 percent of National Presto's sales, Collopy said. He says he particularly likes the company's rich dividend payments: Including a special dividend, it paid out $5.55 a share to stockholders in 2009.

An even less apparent consumer related stock is one of Wisconsin's biggest publicly traded companies: Johnson Controls Inc.

Some of the batteries Johnson Controls makes are sold at retail stores such as AutoZone, NAPA Auto Parts and Wal-Mart, Newcomer said.

Consumer stock pickers won't be the only ones wading through a mixed environment. Bargain-hunting shoppers aren't likely to find easy pickings either, Maschmeyer said.

"I think retailers are focused on profitable sales, and so with their inventories in better shape this year, you are not going to see the same markdowns you saw last year," she said.

Paul Gores of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.

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