(Source: Waterbury Republican-American)

By David Krechevsky, Waterbury Republican-American, Conn.
Nov. 20--The state unemployment rate jumped to 8.8 percent in October,
even as Connecticut added 1,000 jobs, according to a new report.
The spike in jobs, however, could be due in part to new estimation
procedures, a state official said, while an economist said the jump in the
unemployment rate actually may be an indication the recovery is beginning.
The state Department of Labor said Thursday the state's nonfarm
employment in October was 1,624,000, an increase of 1,000 jobs from the
revised September figure of 1,623,000. The gain in jobs came after the state
shed a revised 6,200 jobs in September. It was the first time since May the
state has added jobs.
Even with the job growth, however, the unemployment rate in October
jumped to 8.8 percent from 8.4 percent. The rate is the highest for the state
since September 1976, when it was 9.0 percent.
The national unemployment rate in October was 10.2 percent.
"Despite the increase in the state's unemployment rate, there are some
positive signs in Connecticut's economic indicators," said Salvatore DiPillo,
the state's labor statistics supervisor. "While a gain of 1,000 jobs is
welcome news, even more significant is the fact that initial (unemployment)
claims for October, at 5,900, decreased by nearly 1,000 from the previous
month and are now at their lowest level since last December."
The report notes that job gains and losses were divided among the state's
10 major industry sectors. The largest gains were 1,700 jobs in the leisure
and hospitality sector, 1,100 jobs in the professional and business services
sector, and 600 jobs in construction, the third straight monthly increase. The
biggest losses were 1,300 jobs in the trade, transportation and utilities
sector, and 800 in manufacturing.
The report cautions, though, that the state is slowly implementing a
change in its methods for estimating nonfarm employment, in cooperation with
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The new estimates rely almost strictly on
the data and no longer allow analysts opinions to alter the numbers.
"We are trying to bring estimates more in adherence with how they make
estimates nationally," DiPillo said. "But you are going to see a little more
volatility in month-to-month estimates."
Meanwhile, Pete Gioia, vice president and economist with the Connecticut
Business and Industry Association, said the spike in the unemployment rate is
not necessarily a bad sign. He said it's an indication more people are
entering the labor force, which is made up both of those employed and those
seeking work.
"What we're seeing here is some signs of recovery, because we're seeing
added jobs and at the same time we're seeing more people entering the labor
force, which means they're looking for jobs," he said. "And that's what you
see at the beginning of a recovery."
Gioia also said the three consecutive months of growth in construction
jobs is most likely related to the federal stimulus package.
Things weren't so rosy, however, for the Waterbury labor market area,
which saw its non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increase in October to
11.2 percent from 11.0 percent in September. The seven-town market once again
had the state's highest unemployment rate for the 106th time in the past 107
months, and it was the 10th straight month it was the only state labor market
with double-digit unemployment.
The rate for the Torrington labor market area also increased, to 8.2
percent in October from 7.9 percent in September.
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