Nov. 21--A couple of days before Halloween, University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith came out with a "gore-cast" forecast that Florida's unemployment would peak next year around 11.2 percent.

On Friday, after learning the state's jobless rate hit that number already, Snaith was back to the drawing board.

"I think now we're talking 11.7, 11.8 percent for the peak. Is 12 percent out of the range of possibility? No, it isn't."

There's been a growing consensus that the country's unemployment rate will peak around 10.5 percent by mid 2010 and start gradually receding. But getting a grip on how high Florida's unemployment might rise has been a frustrating exercise.

Florida's jobless rate of 11.2 percent for October represents 1.13 million unemployed out of a statewide work force just under 9.2 million. It's up slightly from an upwardly adjusted 11.1 percent in September.

Florida has shed 339,600 jobs over the year, the single biggest chunk coming in the trade, transportation and utilities sector. Among Florida's major industries, health care is the only sector gaining jobs. About 14,400 jobs have been created over the year in health care and social assistance, primarily in nursing and residential care facilities.

"No one has really expected to have the downturn last this long and be as severe as it currently is," said Rebecca Rust, chief economist with the Florida Agency of Workforce Innovation, which oversees unemployment data and benefits. "It has surprised a lot of forecasters."

Just a couple of weeks ago, the Florida Economic Estimating Conference predicted the state's unemployment would top out at 11.4 percent next year, up from its July prediction of 11 percent. In a conference call with reporters Friday, Rust was hesitant to say that new number may be outdated already.

"It is our official number, so we will be confident and hope we don't surpass that peak," she said, "but we can only hope."

Her hope is rooted in several positive signs:

--The national economy is strengthening, with exports rising, the gross domestic product back in the positive, a continued drop in new unemployment claims and inflation remaining low.

--Earlier this year, more than 700,000 a month were losing their jobs nationwide; now the ranks of the unemployed are rising at a pace under 400,000 a month.

--The number of mass layoffs in Florida dropped from a peak 26 notices in March to 11 in October.

For many of the positives, a potentially damaging negative lurks.