Public anger at the measures in next month's budget is likely to be intense

WITH JUST 10 days to go, it is possible to piece together an initial picture of the likely headline features of next month's budget. A survey of recent speeches and media interviews from Ministers, together with an examination of news pieces filed in the last week or so by a selection of usually authoritative political and economic correspondents, suggest that the following are likely to be the key features of the budget speech.

The Government appears set to introduce an across-the-board cut in the rate of child benefit. It seems this will be cushioned for lower-income households by compensation in child-related social welfare payments or in the Family Income Supplement. It seems that there will be an even more severe cut in child benefit for wealthier households, or at least those households identified by the Revenue Commissioners as earning more than [euro]100,000 a year. Recent remarks by the Taoiseach suggest that in seeking further savings in the welfare budget the Government will exempt old age pensioners.

There is, it appears, some possibility of achieving savings by reducing the range and extent of ancillary entitlements of which welfare recipients can avail. If there are to be savings of the order required in the welfare budget, then cuts will have to come in the form of a cut in the basic rate paid to the unemployed and all other recipients other than those on the old age pension.

The Government has already indicated that it wants to save [euro]1.3 billion on the public sector pay and pensions bill. The rush of retirements of teachers, gardai, Revenue officials and other public servants suggests widespread belief that public sector severance packages will be cut or taxed in the budget. The general ban on public sector recruitment introduced more than a year ago, together with the non-renewal of temporary contractors, will also save money by containing and then cutting public sector numbers.

There will also be savings achieved by freezing increments or reducing or removing some allowances but, as of yet, it appears that no significant progress has been made in talks with the public sector unions on how the balance of the [euro]1.3 billion could be achieved.

All of which suggests that notwithstanding this week's public sector work stoppage or even a similar stoppage next week, the Government is going to cut the basic rate of public sector pay. Most of the media reports suggest this will be done by seeking a larger cut from better-paid public servants.