(Source: Daily Mail)

By Simon Watkins, Financial Mail on Sunday, London
Nov. 29--Standard Chartered is one UK bank that managed to avoid the
pitfalls of lending too much money here or getting involved in the US loans
bonanza that went so wrong.
But last week a palm-shaped shadow was cast over the group when Dubai
called for a moratorium on debt repayments by the state-owned Dubai World.
The news knocked many British banks, but by this weekend it was becoming
clear that the risk to their balance sheets was set to be modest.
The majority of bank shares recovered some of their losses, but those
seen to be most exposed all lost ground over the five days. HSBC and Royal
Bank of Scotland were down 3.5 per cent while Standard Chartered, thought to
have the biggest exposure to Dubai as a proportion of its loan book, fell six
per cent.
While a pause for thought allowed the markets to make a calmer appraisal,
there is no doubt that more turbulence is to come, simply because the full
ramifications of the Dubai statement are so unclear.
Many hope that Abu Dhabi, its neighbour and the lead state in the United
Arab Emirates, will come to Dubai's rescue. The pessimists are muttering about
a sovereign debt default. As ever, the truth probably lies somewhere between.
What is most interesting is that we might be seeing the start of a subtle but
significant change in the Gulf states" financial landscape.
In recent years they have used state-owned firms to acquire a dizzying
array of UK assets, from container ports to stakes in High Street banks.
Throughout this, the lines between the royal families, giant firms and
governments of these states have often been blurred in the public mind, and
for good reason.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is Emir of Dubai, prime minister of
the UAE and the biggest shareholder in most of its largest firms.
The distinction is naturally blurred and, not unreasonably, it is assumed
a company is really just the business face of a royal family member or the
state.
This lack of clarity over Gulf finances has led to a perception that
loans to these companies were as cast-iron as sovereign debt. This has
encouraged their bosses to be reckless and to operate outside normal
commercial boundaries.
But it is just possible that what is happening over Dubai World is the
start of cultural shift in which the lines are being drawn more sharply
between the wealth and assets of individuals, the state coffers and companies.
While welcome in the long run, an adjustment to a more commercial
distinction between personal, state and corporate money could be painful, not
just in the Gulf but also for the Western banks that lent money to these
corporate monarchies.
The analysts think the immediate outlook will involve at worst a bearable
amount of financial pain. Let us hope they are right.
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