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Economists' Outlook Not so Bleak
Thursday, July 10, 2008 5:52 AM

--Wholesale trade: Jobs have dropped since 2000, partly because of increased productivity. The trend should continue with declines of 0.5 percent in 2008 and 0.3 percent in 2009 and 2010.

--Retail trade: Larger retailers are gaining a bigger share of sales, limiting employment growth, and online sales hurt brick-and-mortar retailers. Jobs should grow by 0.7 percent in 2008 and by 0.5 percent in 2009 and 2010.

--Financial services: Housing weakness hurts the sector, but insurance and investment are growing. Jobs should gain 0.9 percent this year and 2 percent in 2009 and 2010.

--Services: Service jobs will grow by 2.3 percent annually through 2010, including more health-care jobs as the population ages.

--Government: With property values sliding or growing slowly, tax revenues are tight. State and local government employment growth will increase by 0.8 percent in 2008 and 2009, then 1 percent in 2010.

--Nonfarm personal income: As the economy slows, income should grow by 4.7 percent in 2008, 4.3 percent in 2009 and 4.5 percent in 2010. Other labor costs, especially for health costs, will rise faster. Dividends, interest and rent income will decline.

The economists: John Austin, Bruce Johnson and Eric Thompson, UNL; Chris Decker and Keith Turner, UNO; Tom Doering and Franz Schwarz, State of Nebraska; Ernie Goss, Creighton University; Lisa Johnson, Lincoln Partnership for Economic Development; Ken Lemke, Nebraska Public Power District; Scott Strain, Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce.

--Contact the writer: 444-1080, steve.jordon@owh.com

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Story Source: Omaha World-Herald


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