Since 2001, there has been a record swing in the budget deficit, the dollar has weakened considerably, and the Federal Reserve has kept short-term interest rates negative."
Given those extraordinarily stimulative policies, Mr. Tonelson said, U.S. economic growth has been disappointing.
Notwithstanding gains in overall employment and manufacturing output, the loss of millions of relatively high-paying manufacturing jobs during a period of soaring trade deficits has caused Americans to view globalization and the world trading system much more skeptically in recent years.
The fact that median family income was lower in 2006, the most recent year available, than in 1999 hasn't helped.
According to a 2008 poll by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, Americans were the least supportive of international trade among 24 countries surveyed. Only 53 percent of Americans (distributed evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independents) said trade with other countries has had a good effect on the United States. In 2002, 78 percent said trade had a positive impact.
For 20 years, the New York Times/CBS News poll has been asking people whether free trade should be allowed even if domestic industries are hurt by foreign competition. This year, the largest proportion ever -- 68 percent -- said import restrictions are necessary, while only 24 percent advocated free trade.
Mr. Obama's rhetoric makes him the most protectionist presidential candidate that his party has opted for in recent election cycles.
Consider that the Clinton-Gore administration worked hard to pass NAFTA in 1993, the World Trade Organization in 1994 and permanent normal trade relations for China in 2000.
And Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic nominee, voted for those three proposals.
Jason Furman, economic policy director of the Obama campaign, said it is difficult to compare Mr. Obama with previous nominees because "the world has changed, economic challenges have changed and globalization has changed."
To mitigate the public's increasing skepticism about trade, Mr. Obama would "break from the trade-policy failures of recent years," including its contribution to rising inequality, Mr. Furman said. Mr. Bush exacerbated that inequality through his tax cuts, he added. Continuing the Bush tax and trade policies, Mr. Furman said, "would deepen the public's skepticism."
Mr. Obama would implement three changes in trade policy, Mr. Furman said. He would better enforce existing agreements. He would include strong labor and environmental standards to produce better trade agreements in the future. And he would pursue comprehensive, complementary domestic policies, from expanded trade-adjustment assistance to more affordable health care, to reduce trade's contribution to rising inequality.
"Ninety-five percent of the world's consumers live outside the United States," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the chief economic policy adviser to the McCain campaign. It is imperative for long-term economic growth and job creation that American businesses and workers have access to these markets on a level playing field, he said.
"McCain believes in trade and actively supports it," he said.
In contrast, Mr. Obama's opposition to numerous free-trade agreements and his support of trade-distorting farm subsidies would deny or reduce American businesses and workers access to these foreign markets, he said.
Eighty-seven percent of U.S. exporters are small businesses, which are responsible for one-third of total U.S. exports and the vast majority of new jobs, Mr. Holtz-Eakin said. He warned that increased taxes, expensive health-care mandates and other burdens proposed by Mr. Obama could cripple a large part of the U.S. economy's export sector, which has been the principal contributor to U.S. growth during the past year.
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