The unemployed often go back to school to sharpen or change skills.
But as the economy worsens in 2009, Northeast Pennsylvania's growth sectors -- public education, government, and health care ?-- will level off or even decline, said Dr. Satyajit Ghosh, professor of economics and finance at the University of Scranton, as government and health care providers grapple with declining revenue.
Another positive may be the absence of inflation. Falling prices may have given relief to consumers but could cause serious problems if it leads to deflation, Dr. Ghosh said.
"We may have to create a new word, something like 'stag-deflation,' " he said, alluding to the 70s portmanteau "stagflation," which refers to periods of economic stagnation and price inflation.
There may be more economic activity out there than many suspect. Chuck Leonard, president of Pocono Mountains Economic Development Corp., does not have as bleak an outlook. He said despite the torrent of bad news, his organization continues to receive nibbles of interest and even visits from companies looking to expand but taking a "wait-and-see" position before they move.
"There's been a drop-off, but our lead activity is not as weak as you would think," he said. "There is a pent-up demand, and I hope that when things swing back in 2009, that demand will break out."
Some firms are capitalizing on the collapse of their competitors, Mr. Leonards said, expanding to fill market gaps left by casualties of the economy.
Emergence
Experts are guardedly optimistic about things improving later in the year, but all fear the recession could easily persist.
Like Dr. Liuzzo, Dr. Jaffe also believes the worse will be behind in the second half of 2009, which he described as possible "the beginning of the end" of the recession.
Contact the writer: dfalchek@timesshamrock.com
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