The firms are already worried about Iraq's security situation, the lack of a new national oil law and the government's argument that deals struck independently with the semiautonomous Kurds in the north are illegal.
As much the licensing round's cheerleader and key driver, al-Shahristani has also been its scapegoat.
His critics have pointed to Iraq's inability to even reach its prewar production levels as evidence that he has failed in his job. Others gripe that the bidding round will open the door for an economic occupation of the country at a time when it is pulling away from the U.S. military presence that many in Iraq likened to military occupation.
The poor showing could further strengthen critics' arguments that he put too much emphasis on the bidding round while ignoring easy repairs to the sector that could have been carried out over the past couple of years.
The minister, however, has insisted he was working for the country's best interest.
Iraqi officials have estimated that based on crude oil at $50 per barrel, the companies could earn around $16 billion in total. Iraq, meanwhile, would get over $1.7 trillion.
As part of the contracts, the companies have to provide so-called "soft-loan" signature bonuses to the government that total about $2.6 billion.
The company response to the bidding sends a clear signal to Iraq, said analysts.
It says "the companies will still be there, but they've made it clear what their baseline is, and that they can't go into the red even to get access to Iraqi oil," said Ciszuk. "The risks are just too great."
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AP Business Writer Tarek El-Tablawy contributed to this report from Cairo.
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