Venezuela is the only South American country projected by the IMF to see its economy shrink in 2009 and 2010, although exactly how the economy performs will ultimately depend on oil prices. Oil income accounted for 93 percent of Venezuela's export income in 2008, up from about 75 percent when Chavez took office.

In Bolivia, which has an Indian majority, Morales is the first self-identified indigenous president in the country's history and remains popular.

But investment in the country's most important industry _ natural gas _ has been moribund with Morales' decision to jack up taxes on the foreign producers and force them to operate under new contracts.

In an ominous sign for Bolivia, neighboring Chile this week began receiving its first shipment of natural gas delivered in tankers from foreign countries.

Chile has built the infrastructure to receive the natural gas to avoid the need for natural gas from Bolivia. Brazil, Bolivia's biggest customer, will soon lessen its dependence on Bolivia by opening its own natural gas ports.

"The populists are very good at leveling indictments against the old political order and getting a political bounce for that," said Michael Shifter, vice president of the Inter-American Dialogue. "But it's no substitute for governing."

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