So far, the main Opposition parties have been able to make political capital out of the Coalition's difficulties, without offering alternative policies. Fine Gael has given broad brush strokes focused on spending cuts rather than tax increases, but has not spelt out the details, while Labour has mainly relied on denouncing every Government initiative.
A debate on the Snip report might flush the Opposition parties out because, at the very least, they would come under pressure to say what aspects of it they found acceptable. It might also educate a public which so far has been deeply reluctant to accept the need for the kind of action that is required to get the public finances in order.
A feature of the public response to date is that there has been far less resistance to income tax increases than spending cuts. The irony is that while the Government itself knows that the future prosperity of the country requires that the emphasis be placed on getting public spending under control, the softer political option is simply to dip into peoples' pockets for more income tax.
As well as cutting back on spending, there is a strong case to be made for raising more revenue for the exchequer by broadening the tax base. However, if the paltry second home tax is anything to go by, a genuine property tax will provoke the same kind of resistance as spending cuts, particularly if it is designed to raise a significant amount of money.
The report of the Commission on Taxation, which is expected to recommend a property tax, among other things, will form the second prong of the Government's approach; its report is expected at the end of the month. Along with the spending cuts report, it should help to frame debate going into the autumn, and preparation of the critical 2010 budget.
Another important element that will feed into budget considerations is the review of the programme for government, on which the Greens are placing a great deal of emphasis. There is an assumption in Fianna Fail that the Greens will hang in there no matter what, but there have been clear signals that the junior Coalition party is considering all its options.
The decision by the Green leadership to consult party members indicates a willingness to raise the stakes. The problem is that once members are given a say, they may not be all that easy to control. Polls have shown Green voters very unhappy with the Government. This is bound to have rubbed off on a significant number of party members.
The dilemma faced by the Greens is that while they could face a wipe-out in an early general election, the party might cease to exist in all but name if its Ministers sign up to the kind of austerity programme that the country requires in the autumn.
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