He said he's not disputing the calculations by the industrial group or CURB, which reached similar numbers.

But he said the costs could shift dramatically depending on what Congress does in terms of granting carbon credits for companies like Westar that already have made substantial investments in nuclear and wind power.

"Hopefully, they're both wrong as far as total impact," he said.

If the government grants a large offset for nuclear power, it could be a huge boon to Westar South consumers.

But he said just as no one saw cap-and-trade coming, Westar South could face unforeseen costs.

For example, bills would skyrocket if there's nuclear accident somewhere else in the country and Wolf Creek has to be shut down for inspection or modifications.

In addition, Rohlfs and Westar say that the South's advantage will be partially offset by costs to extend the life of Wolf Creek and to install environmental upgrades at the La Cygne power plant in Missouri, which is half owned by Westar and supplies power for Westar South.

The Wolf Creek upgrade is estimated to be in the $500 million range, with Westar on the hook for slightly less than half.

Estimates on La Cygne upgrades were not available.

City absent in debate>

Former Wichita Mayor Bob Knight crusaded for rate parity in the early 2000s, when Westar South customers paid about a third more for electricity than northern customers.

Knight said it's amusing to hear the same arguments he made in favor of rate parity now being used by Westar and the commission staff, who firmly rejected them in the past.

"And the world turns," he said, chuckling. "Now it's kind of a novel concept, this idea that the energy doesn't know where it's coming from or where it's going."

Rohlfs said that when Knight was arguing for parity, the difference in rates was too big to close all at once. That's no longer the case, he said.

The city of Wichita has been notably absent from the current discussions on rate parity.

Early in the decade, the city intervened constantly in cases affecting Wichita electric rates. But city interest in the subject has waned since Knight left office in 2003 and rates have moved closer together.

"The rising cost of energy is an ongoing concern for the City of Wichita, especially in these current times of economic stress," said a written statement from Mayor Carl Brewer issued in response to an Eagle inquiry.

"We have been monitoring the current rate case before the Kansas Corporation Commission and will respond appropriately if circumstances dictate. We will continue to evaluate whether the proposed rate increase is a proper balance of consumer fairness and the business requirements of Westar."

Reach Dion Lefler at 316-268-6527.

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