Champaign area in 'slow recovery,' economist reports

April 21--CHAMPAIGN -- The economic downturn likely "bottomed out" during the second quarter of 2010, and since then, Champaign County has seen signs of improvement, such as an increase in retail sales and a slight decline in the unemployment rate.

"We are in what you would probably call a 'slow recovery,'" said Ed Scharlau, vice chairman of First Busey Corporation.

Scharlau was scheduled to deliver his annual seminar on the Champaign County economy this morning in the Assembly Hall. It was titled, "Our abundant community: Creating a vibrant life in Champaign County" and inspired by the book "The Abundant Community" by John McKnight and Peter Block. Scharlau has been giving economic addresses in Champaign since 1975.

Scharlau provided an advance copy of his remarks to The News-Gazette.

A vibrant community, he said, is not built by corporations, but by people doing things, such as starting festivals, enhancing parks, creating programs that benefit schools.

"Take the marathon. That's a great example of something that has made our community more vibrant," Scharlau said. "That was organized by a group of people who wanted to start a marathon here."

Before releasing regional figures with the audience of local politicians, University of Illinois and Parkland College officials, bank customers and more, he reviewed national economic surveys and data such as the National Association for Business Economics survey that found most of the economists surveyed expect the U.S. economy to grow at least 2 percent in 2011.

"Hopefully, the economists are right and we will see moderate growth in 2011," Scharlau said. "We're going to see the slow progress developing this year."

For the first time since he began the seminars, Scharlau said, the University of Illinois payroll declined.

UI payroll declined from $906 million to $894 million in 2010. He attributed that drop to employees taking furlough days. As for 2011, Scharlau estimates the university payroll will be around $898 million.

After the university, the largest employer in the county is the health care industry, including Carle, Provena Covenant Medical Center, Christie Clinic, Health Alliance, Personal Care and Stratum Med.

Payrolls in that sector continue to increase. In 2010, they were $484 million, up from $460 million in 2009. Scharlau's estimate for 2011 is $500 million.

Education employs 14,633 employees in the area, followed by 7,786 employees in health care and 4,120 employees in manufacturing.