BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 May 2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six Year Since
month months months to date launch*
Sterling:
Share price -5.0% -1.4% 9.0% 8.7% -19.9%
Net asset value -3.1% -2.2% 6.0% 5.7% -15.1%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -0.2% -0.5% -0.1% -0.2% -17.2%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -6.3% -12.0% 1.0% 1.0% -14.3%
US Dollars:
Net asset value -8.1% -5.8% 3.8% 4.7% -16.2%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -5.4% -4.1% -2.3% -1.2% -18.3%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -11.2% -15.2% -1.1% 0.1% -15.4%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 121.56c
Net asset value - cum income: 123.86c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 78.98p
Net asset value - cum income: 80.47p
Share price: 77.38p
Total assets (including income): £76.3m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 3.8%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 3.4%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 30.3 Nigeria 16.0
Industrials 14.3 Qatar 14.3
Consumer Staples 13.2 Kazakhstan 11.4
Telecommunications 12.0 United Arab Emirates 10.3
Energy 11.2 Saudi Arabia 7.4
Healthcare 4.9 Ukraine 6.3
Materials 4.8 Kuwait 5.8
Utilities 4.6 Vietnam 3.9
Consumer Discretionary 3.2 Croatia 3.8
Technology 0.7 Iraq 2.9
----- Bangladesh 2.7
Total 99.2 Argentina 2.5
----- Panama 2.5
Short positions 0.0 Pan Africa 2.4
===== Pakistan 2.1
Algeria 1.6
Kenya 1.5
Slovenia 0.8
Romania 0.7
Oman 0.3
-----
99.2
=====
Short positions 0.0
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 29.02 31.03 30.04 31.05
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 103.6 105.2 100.7 101.1 103.4 97.0 106.2 103.9 98.3 100.8 99.2
Short 2.8 7.8 7.4 6.2 4.8 3.2 3.1 5.2 3.0 2.1 0.0
Gross 106.4 113.0 108.1 107.3 108.2 100.2 109.3 109.1 101.3 102.9 99.2
Net 100.8 97.4 93.3 94.9 98.6 93.8 103.1 98.7 95.3 98.7 99.2
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Air Arabia United Arab Emirates
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
First Bank of Nigeria Nigeria
First Gulf Bank United Arab Emirates
Halyk Savings Bank Kazakhstan
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
National Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Zenith Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market performance
The MSCI Frontiers Market Index fell 5.4% in May, outperforming global emerging
markets which fell 11.2% (in US dollar terms with net income reinvested).
Global Markets suffered from the re-emergence of European financial stress and
disappointing growth data, particularly in the largest BRIC economies. In
Greece, the two dominant political parties lost ground to smaller parties
campaigning against austerity which drove fears of collateral damage from a
disorderly Greece exit from Euro.
In Frontier markets, Africa held up relatively well over this period, with the
Nigerian and Kenyan markets delivering flat returns in falling markets. The
relative divergence in performance of these markets demonstrates their low
integration with global capital flows and the significance of domestic factors
over global factors. Nigeria is emerging successfully from its banking crisis
and despite a sharp reduction in fuel subsidies hampering consumer spending,
the country delivered 6% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2012. After a
challenging 2011, the Kenyan market was buoyed by recent oil discoveries and
falling inflation. We remain cautious on the prospects of the Kenyan economy,
given a twin deficit and rising domestic debt levels.
The weakest performers in May were Eastern European markets, which were
impacted by deterioration in the Eurozone credit markets. In Romania, the fall
of the government in April was followed by the news in May that the economy had
slipped into recession in the first quarter of 2012. Kazakhstan also suffered
from the falling oil price and unfounded speculation that the Tenge may follow
the path of the Russian Ruble towards depreciation.
Portfolio performance
The BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust had a disappointing month, falling by
8.1% in May, underperforming the MSCI Frontier Markets Index by 2.7%. For the
calendar year to date, the company NAV has outperformed the MSCI Frontiers
Index by 5.9%, returning 4.7%.
The Company's NAV performance was hurt by positions in Kazakhstan and Ukraine,
which suffered as a consequence of flight to perceived 'quality' away from
peripheral European assets.
Kazakh miner ENRC was a notable underperformer in May. The stock sold off on
concerns that rising cost inflation and lower commodity prices would hurt
cashflows. We are nevertheless encouraged by the company's recent efforts to
improve corporate governance and revamp strategy. Also detracting from
performance were the Company's holdings in Ukraine. Consumer staple companies,
MHP and Kernel, as well as energy company JKX all suffered from contagion fears
from the Eurozone crisis. These stocks have subsequently rebounded in June from
their recent lows.
The Company benefitted positively from overweight positions in Nigerian
financials, in particular United Bank for Africa and Zenith Bank. The Company's
holdings in the UAE were also a positive contributor to performance in May.
UAE's domestic economy has been relatively insulated from external turbulence,
benefitting from rising tourism and capital flows with the wider Middle East.
Activity
At the end of May, the Company held 45 long positions in stocks across 20
markets.
In May, the Company covered its short positions in the materials sector. The
sector looks oversold despite headwinds from the unwinding of a decade long
commodity boom and China's declining intensity of commodity demand. The Company
also exited its position in Pakistani industrial company, Lucky Cement, after
the stock rallied near 70% since the start of the year. The Company now has no
investments in Pakistan, where the market has done well in spite of the
deteriorating domestic political environment.
The Company has reduced its exposure to Bangladeshi telecom, Grameenphone, into
share price strength and uncertainty over the impending 3G license auction. The
team believes there is a tremendous long-term opportunity in the Bangladeshi
market, and will look to add back exposure when the government's fiscal
position and banking fundamentals demonstrate signs of sustainable improvement.
Market Outlook
There has been a notable weakening in the global growth environment and
corporate earnings forecasts remain elevated in developed markets and are
likely to succumb to further downward revisions. Extreme valuation
discrepancies between perceived defensive and risky assets with US, UK and
German bond yields at multi-decade lows suggests that most of these concerns
are priced in. Markets are fearful of short-term concerns whilst acknowledging
little or no possibility of medium term recovery.
While Frontier markets will not remain immune to global growth concerns, we are
encouraged by the relatively resilient earnings growth and high dividend yields
of the Trust's largest holdings. Barring an outright collapse of the global
financial system, the team believes that domestic factors such as positive
structural reforms, improving banking liquidity and declining inflation are
likely to dominate global concerns as drivers of Frontier market performance.
Several Frontier markets have emerged from their own domestic crises of recent
years, and addressed domestic imbalances, which leaves them better placed
compared to previous episodes of global distress. The low dependence on
external credit markets and low public debt levels are also strong buffers
against ongoing global volatility.
The Company also sees long-term value in its holdings in Ukraine and
Kazakhstan, despite their recent underperformance. While both countries have
their own domestic issues with low stock market liquidity, they do not suffer
from the same pressing challenges as Europe. The trust holds a meaningful
position in Halyk bank of Kazakhstan, which has a capital adequacy ratio of 19%
and substantial surplus liquidity. In contrast to European banks which are
deleveraging, Halyk bank grew its loans and deposits by 8% and 18% respectively
over the past year and has recently announced plans to buy-back preference
shares. The Trust's largest holding in Ukraine, poultry producer MHP is growing
revenues and profits in excess of 20% annually and trades on a price to
earnings ratio of just 4 times.
We retain our positive view of Saudi Arabia and Qatar. After a period of
absence, Saudi stocks have been included in MSCI regional indices and there
have been additional signals that the Kingdom will ease restrictions to foreign
ownership. The Saudi government's infrastructure spending and job creation
programmes are buffered by US$540bn of FX reserves and twin surpluses. The
Trust is gradually adding to its Saudi exposure, having taken profit earlier
this year. We are also encouraged by rising evidence that Qatar is mobilizing
its vast pipeline of planned infrastructure projects, which will be supportive
of Qatari banks' loan growth. The prospects of high dollar-pegged dividend
yields in both markets will also be supportive in a challenging global
environment.
21 June 2012
ENDS
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any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.