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Ultrashort QQQ (QID) Poised To Move Higher

 April 18, 2011 10:07 AM

Stocks closed modestly higher on Friday as volume increased. The market sold off for the first 30 minutes, reversed course until 1:00 pm and consolidated for the remainder of the day. All five major indices closed in positive territory with the small-cap Russell 2000 leading the way. The high beta index tacked on 1.1% for the session. The S&P MidCap 400 climbed 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted gains of 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.

Market internals were sufficient to qualify both the Nasdaq and the NYSE for an accumulation day. Volume was higher on the NYSE by 15% on the Nasdaq by 4.7%. Advancing volume was higher than declining volume by 1.8 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.5 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Overall the market performed reasonably well against the backdrop of an enormous down day for Google (GOOG) and sharp selling in Apple (AAPL).

[Related -World Growth: Mediocre or Pathetic?]

The First Global Wind Energy ETF (FAN) gapped down and retested its 20-day MA on Friday before reversing and closing near its intraday high. Further, the Accumulation-Distribution Histogram continued its upward trend despite the gap down. FAN still appears prepared to move higher. Based on Friday's price action we may consider moving the entry trigger for this ETF above the two day high of $11.91. Should we decide to change the trigger price for FAN we will do so via an intraday alert.

[Related -Bullish Sentiment Solidifies Even In The Face Of Lofty Valuations]

Our position in QID continues to show signs of moving higher. This ETF continues to hold support at both its 20-day EMA and the 50-day MA. Further, the Accumulation Distribution Histogram continues to solidly uptrend. This uptrend in the Accum./Dist. Histogram has remained in place despite the selloff and consolidation of QID since March 16th. This type of divergence between price action and Accumulation/Distribution is typically considered bullish. A move above the two day high of $53.11 may provide a buy trigger to add to our position in QID.

Immediately following the close on Friday the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures climbed higher. However as of this writing both the E-mini Nasdaq-100 Continuous Contract and the E-mini S&P 500 Continuous Contract are down approximately 0.5%. Although the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) has moved back above its 50-day MA, the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX.X) continues to struggle in its attempt to move back above both the 20-day EMA and 50-day MA. We are closely monitoring the big players on the Nasdaq as they may very well hold the key to the next significant move in the market.

NOTE:Regular subscribers to The Wagner Daily receive daily updates on the open positions above, as well as new ETF trade setups, including trigger, stop, and target prices. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or mobile phone text message on as-needed basis.

Deron Wagner is the head trader of Morpheus Capital Hedge Fund and founder of Morpheus Trading Group (morpheustrading.com), which he launched in 2001. Wagner appears on his best-selling video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002), and is co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. He is also a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world. Wagner is currently working on this third book, scheduled for publication in early 2008.For a free trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily above, which includes detailed ETF trade setups and daily position updates, or to learn about our other newsletters, visit morpheustrading.com or send an e-mail to deron@morpheustrading.com


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