As we start the new week, let's focus on two main ideas in the US Equity Markets – Trend Structure and Current Reference Support Levels.
Let's start with the S&P 500:
Before we start with the chart, let's define "Market Structure."
In simplest terms, "Structure" refers to the progression of price swing highs and price swing lows, with an uptrend defined as a series of "Higher Highs and Higher Lows" and vice versa for a downtrend.
In other words, a Change in Market Structure can occur ONLY with a change in the sequence of highs and lows.
A single lower high, or a single lower low cannot change structure – we need the market to make BOTH a lower high AND a lower low then officially take out the lower low to reverse a structural uptrend that we have in place now.
So with that in mind, in each of the charts I have labeled key (important) Swing Highs and Lows with Green Bars in the progressive uptrend, or a Red Bar as a "Caution" or warning sign of possible reversal.
As structure stands now, the recent action formed both a higher low and higher high in all three equity indexes – and that will be confirmed if we continue to rally off our critical support level as we'll see in each market.
Starting with the S&P 500, we had a "Warning" with the slightly lower April swing high (you could almost consider that a neutral high) which resulted in a higher low then the recent higher high at 1,370.
In terms of Key Daily Support: Watch the Rising 20 day EMA and critical price pivot at 1,340.
No matter what fundamentals, opinion, or news suggest, as long as the S&P 500 remains above the 1,340 level, the market remains in a bullish uptrend which favors long positions until proven otherwise with a breakdown under 1,320 (50d EMA) then preferably the 1,300 critical "Round Number" reference level. Keep those in mind as you trade the weeks ahead.
The picture is very similar in the Dow Jones Index:
The only difference in structure in the Dow Jones is that price actually made a slight higher high into April while the S&P 500 matched its 1,340 high.
Also, notice how volume increased slightly during the late-April rally – that's bullish.
Otherwise, the Critical Daily Support is similarly the rising 20d EMA at 12,650, or the May low from last week at 12,500.