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Checking Our Bearings

 August 30, 2011 10:13 AM
 


Amazing how quickly time goes when you are on holiday isn't it? Also amazing how exhausting a "holiday" can be. Of course returning after a long break involves vast amounts of deck clearing as the x grillion emails and Bloomberg messages need deleting. TMM have long believed in the "composting" method of email management where by they are all transferred to a "compost heap" folder and left to rot. Those that were important are bound to be followed by urgent chaser reminders which can then be actioned, otherwise if nothing results after 2 weeks the whole lot can happily be cleared out.

As an aside TMM are hugely in support of an idea once floated by AOL suggesting that emails are priced. Just a cent or so each, with the money paid by the sender going to the account of the recipient. For most usual users this should net off pretty flat but it would be enough to make folks think twice about the value of the mail or copying in the whole world. It would put an effective end to spammers and limit most of the crap we receive.

Anyway, back to less mundane issues. The markets.

It feels as though the past 2 weeks have been a rumour-fest with journalistic pieces running the show and markets following. Our long held view that 2011 is a rerun of 2010 with respect to sentiment and topical focus is still on track with the US having overtaken Europe as the focus during August and the expectation of more US QE rife. Our thoughts earlier in the summer were that the difference would be that this time there would be no further stimulus and, though that is looking less likely, we may still escape direct QE as we are now expecting something from Obama on Sept 6th. Having taken on Krueger there may well be some clever micro reform package on the way.

But the sentiment remains very similar to 2010 and that sentiment does seem to still be firmly parked in the bear camp. With equities having put in a potential double bottom and the carry monkeys coming out of their cages again it looks like the credit markets are the current banner being waved by the bears. In fact if we look at equities through SPX and carry through AUDCHF and credit through the European Itraxx Crossover, we can see how the last 2 weeks have seen some massive divergence.

But TMM feel that the credit markets are dominated by CVA desks and spec players with no hedging vehicles to play against in the summer months.


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