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Daily Analysis – Greek Debt Deal Triggers Global Equity Rally

 October 28, 2011 09:55 AM


Asian markets jumped following news of a deal for a 50% haircut on Greece's debt.  The Nikkei gained 2% to 8927, the Kospi advanced 1.5%, and the ASX 200 rallied 2.5% hitting its highest close in 3 months.  In China, the Hang Seng rose 3.3% to 19689, led by railways, and the Shanghai Composite edged up .3%.

European markets soared, led by banks which rocketed up 9%.  The CAC40 jumped 6.3%, the DAX jumped 5.4%, and the FTSE rallied 2.9%.  In France, the 3 leading banks, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale and BNP Pariba,s all posted gains greater than 20%.

The upbeat sentiment continued in the US, sending the indexes sharply higher.  The Dow gained 340 points to 11209, the Nasdaq climbed 3.3%, and the S&P 500 jumped 3.4%.  The VIX tumbled 14.7% to 25.46 as investor anxiety eased.  Here too, financials were the outsized gainers.

Stocks Soar on Greek Debt Deal

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Dow Chemical shares jumped 8.2% even though the company reported earnings which were slightly shy of expectations.  Visa gained 2.6% after reporting profits that were in line with estimates.


Treasuries and Commodities

Bonds tumbled as investors poured into riskier assets.  10 year notes fell 1 21/32 to yield 2.4% and 30-year notes sank 4 21/32 to yield 3.46%.

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A $29 billion auction of 7-year notes had a high yield of 1.791 percent and a weak bid-to-cover ratio of 2.59.

Commodities rallied across the board.  In energy, crude oil soared 4.1% to 93.91, gasoline advanced 3.3% to 2.7391 and natural gas edged up .4%.

Copper once again led metals higher, rocketing 6.1% higher to close at 3.703.  Silver jumped 5.4% to 35.105, and gold gained 1.3% to 1746.30.



The dollar plunged as the market return to risk-on mode.  The Australian Dollar was the biggest gainer, soaring 3.1% to 1.0722.  The Swiss Franc rallied 2.4% to 1.1628, and the Euro advanced 2.1% to 1.4188.  The Yen once again touched a new record high, tagging 75.67, before pulling back to 75.97, up .4%.  The Canadian Dollar broke back through the parity level, climbing 1.4% to .9911.


Economic Outlook

GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.5%, slightly better than forecast, and a marked improvement from last quarter's 1.3% gain.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 402K, slightly better than last week, but a bit weaker than forecast.  Pending home sales unexpectedly declined by 4.6%, a large increase from last month's 1.2% drop.

Friday's reports will include personal income, personal spending, consumer sentiment, and the employment cost index.

Earnings are scheduled for Arch Coal, Cablevision, Chevron, Cigna, Merck and Whirlpool.


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