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MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI ): Q3 Earnings Preview

 November 03, 2011 11:01 AM
 


MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI ) is expected to report its Q3 results on Nov 7, 2011.

U.S.-housing-related losses have become more stable and appear more predictable. And of course, the exposure continues to decrease. I think new delinquencies in the company's second lien mortgage book will be consistent with my expectations, and payments may be somewhat above what my model predicted. I think MBIA would have also achieved substantial reductions in future volatility by commuting a number of CDO transactions. Reductions in statutory reserves for RMBS and ABS CDOs could more than offset increases in reserves for CMBS.

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For the third quarter of 2011, MBIA is likely to report revenue of $134.1 million, a decrease of 1.8 percent over the same quarter a year ago. Operating loss is likely to come in at $185.9 million, compared with an operating loss of $356.6 million in the same quarter a year ago. Net profit is likely to come in at $66 million, compared with a net loss of $213.4 million in the same quarter a year ago.

National public finance is expected to perform in line with expectations in the quarter, with adjusted pre-tax income in excess of $150 million. The structured finance and international business primarily conducted in MBIA Insurance Corp. is expected to report adjusted pre-tax income in excess of $190 million.

Net-on-net, the company is likely to report EPS of $0.3 for Q3 2011 compared with $-1.06 in Q3 2010.

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