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Outlook Still Favors Bearish Outcomes

 November 21, 2011 09:29 AM


Numerous problems are facing investors:

  1. The flawed structure of the Eurozone is coming back to haunt global leaders. The markets want the European Central Bank (ECB) to print money, but the golden rule applies: "He who has the gold makes the rules." In Europe, Germany "has the gold". Germany has seen what money printing can do and thus, is vehemently opposed to cranking up the printing presses.
  2. Back in the United States, the Super Committee signaled over the weekend they may fail to reach a budget agreement before a fast approaching deadline.
  3. Global growth is being threatened by a vast amount of uncertainty. If Europe tips back into a recession, which appears likely, it becomes even harder to access the bond markets at sustainable rates of interest.
  4. From a technical perspective, as detailed in the video below, numerous concerns remain, including new bearish developments on the weekly chart of the S&P 500.

[Related -Perfect Storm Driving Gold Higher]

If the S&P 500 fails to hold between 1,191 and 1,209, a crack may appear in the door allowing stocks to revisit the October lows. A case can be made for support near 1,180 as well. If the S&P 500 can remain above 1,180/1,191, another push toward 1,240-1,280 cannot be ruled out. In either case, the odds remain in the bearish camp longer-term. Consequently, conservative/deflationary/bearish assets, such as bonds (TLT), the dollar (UUP), and shorts (PSQ), are attractive looking out several weeks to several months.

[Related -SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD): 3T Analysis: Target $1,400 but Box Bound]

Other concerns remain:

  1. As we outlined on November 4, the ratio of gold (GLD) to Tresuries (TLT) has yet to confirm the rally off the October lows.
  2. The NASDAQ typically leads the S&P 500 during sustainable rallies. The NASDAQ has been a laggard in recent weeks (see article).
  3. Copper has also failed to confirm the recent run by the bulls.
  4. The European credit markets are showing signs of stress that exceed what we experienced in 2008.

If the ECB relents and decides to print money, all bearish bets are off. However, given Germany's stance that appears unlikely in the short-term. Over the next few months ECB money-printing becomes more and more likely.

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