Thus far in 2011 the overall stock market movement has been much different from what we had in 2010. This year we have seen nothing but sideways to lower prices with wild price swings on a day to day basis. There just has not been any really solid trends to take advantage of this year. Instead we had to actively trade the oversold dips and sell into the overbought rallies to just pull money out of the market on a monthly basis. Last year we saw 3 major rallies that lasted several months making it easy for anyone who bought into the trend to make money if managed properly.
Looking forward to 2012 it looks as though we are going to see some major changes unfold globally that will change the way we do things live our lives. Unfortunately its a very negative outlook but I do have hope that something will be done to perserve are somewhat normal lifestyles. I'm not one to talk doom and gloom, there are enough of those guys out there already so lets stick with the charts and focus on what is unfolding now in the present and how to take advantage of it…
[Related -SP500 Completing the Arc into Target Levels]
The charts below show what I feel is likely to happen going into the new year IF we don't get any major headline news in Europe that triggers another selloff.
There are a lot of different things unfolding within stocks, commodities, currencies and bonds right now. And it is imporatnt to know that investments are inter-connected in some way. For example, if one investment moves sharply in one direction it will have an effect on other investment classes.
[Related -How Overextended is the SP500 Right Now in June?]
My eye is focused on the US Dollar Index which has recently had a strong run up in price. For the past couple years we have seen stocks fall when the dollar moves up. So with the dollar index now trading at a key resistance level we should see the dollar top out for a few weeks and spark a Christmas rally into year end. After that, all bets are off and we re-analyze…
On the flop side of things, if Europe comes out with major negative headline news we could see the dollar index continue its rally and breakthrough this resistance level. If the dollar moves higher from here we could easily see a multi month run up in the dollar. You do not want to be long stocks if this happens, get short stocks and hold on tight.
Gold Daily Chart Analysis:
Here is my positive out look for gold and what I feel is likely to unfold near term. But keep in mind what I just said about the US dollar index above.