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Latest Thoughts On The Manhattan Real Estate Market

 December 28, 2011 10:23 AM


A: As we close out the year, lets take a quick look at the freshest data that is rolling in. The last few weeks of the year are usually seasonably slow in terms of new deals signed, new listings activated, and new closings filed - so set expectations and strategies accordingly. If history is a guide then we will have to wait til February to see a real uptick up in activity. For now, lets check in on the market ticker and see how the last three Decembers' production stacks up against how we are doing this year. This year over year (y-o-y) look will give us a chance to identify relative strength or weakness without the distractions of seasonality. Current General Manhattan Market Observations (click to see free chart) as of this morning: ACTIVE SUPPLY --> 6,565 actively marketed units for sale *Conclusion: Manhattan supply is tight as inventory is down 7.4% over the last 12 months. We saw a 6 week rise in new inventory after Labor Day, but that quickly ended in late October and the trend has been down ever since. We are currently at the lowest levels of supply for the year of 2011. PENDING SALES --> 1,906 listings In Contract and Awaiting Closing *Conclusion: This broader measure of Manhattan demand is basically flat over the last 12 months. The market saw a surge in demand back in March that peaked out in late June. The high end led the way. This ultimately powered a strong Q3-2011 report. Since then it has been the typical late summer/fall slowdown with your little uptick after Labor Day. Here is a look at the market ticker that is picking up daily listing changes throughout the Manhattan market: 7-Day (black box) - Over the last 7 days, 137 new deals were signed 30-Day (red box) - Over the last 30 days, 712 new deals were signed Both of these levels are down from late November. For newbies, here is a quick comment on how this daily Market Ticker works (tutorial here): ** Shows on the left side as "Real Time Listing Updates" - we call it that because it is tracking all REBNY RLS mandated listing updates (every 14 days a listing must be updated) on all Manhattan Exclusive property listed at member firms (excludes fsbo's, non-REBNY members and open listings). I'd estimate the REBNY RLS feed to cover 90%-93% of the Manhattan market. The ticker updates hourly and we get 6-7 updates per day.

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