Q2 results were as expected while we see a number of catalysts ahead in CY12 including margin improvement, Windows 8 driving PCs higher in CYH2, greater capital returns and scaling in new businesses like cloud, search and mobile. We are buyers here and MSFT remains a top pick.
Q2 As Expected. Rev. of $20.9B was in-line as weakness in Windows was offset by strength in MBD, EDD and S&T, while a tight focus on cost controls lifted EPS to $0.78, ahead of us at $0.75 and cons. of $0.76. FY12 rev. guidance was largely consistent with last Q while lower opex guidance and clarity on COGS guidance should help ease margin fears. Deferred rev. was also in line, while OCF was +40% YoY and bookings growth accel. to +3% against a tough comp.
Windows As Expected. Windows rev. of $4.74B was in line with us at $4.71B but below cons. at $5.00B as OEM unit sales declined -6% YoY, underpacing PC sales by ~300 bps as OEMs reduced inventories in anticipation of HDD shortages. This is a temporary fluctuation that should normalize, while Win 8 should be a strong catalyst in H2 of CY12 that isn't in numbers.
MBD/EDD Offset. MBD posted another solid Q with rev. coming in at $6.28B vs. us at $6.25B and cons. at $6.15B as strong business growth offset consumer -2% YoY. MBD business rev. was +9% YoY with annuity +12% as Lync and Dynamics CRM grew >30% with SharePoint, Exchange and Dynamics ERP up double-digits. EDD rev. of $4.24B also topped us at $4.22B and cons. at $4.15B as Xbox units were +25% YoY, although MSFT did moderate FY12 EDD guidance on concerns about a weaker console market overall.
Managing Expenses. MSFT beat cons. op. margins by 80 bps in Q2 and lowered the mid-point of FY12 opex guidance by $200M as the company continues to keep a tight eye on spending. Notably, expenses in the online business have flattened out YoY after many years of significant growth, and we expect MSFT to be able to expand margins here in FY13 and beyond.