logo
  Join        Login             Stock Quote

China's Inflation Increase - Not Just A Holiday Effect?

 February 09, 2012 03:23 PM


The increase in China's January annual consumer price index (CPI) to 4.5 per cent, from January's 4.1 per cent, ending a five month period of decline, has been generally ascribed to inflationary effects caused by China's Spring Festival (Chinese New Year). The Financial Times, for example, tagged its coverage ‘Spike blamed on food prices ahead of New Year celebrations‘. The FT's report noted: 'Chinese inflation jumped in January, breaking a streak of five straight monthly declines, but seasonal factors were largely to blame and price pressures were expected to weaken in the coming months.'

[Related -Greek Voters Say No, Yanis Varoufakis Says Bye—What Next?]

It is certainly true that China's Spring Festival has powerful, and well known, distorting effects on statistical comparisons, and therefore undoubtedly not too much should be read into one month's figures. Nevertheless there are reasons to consider that the inflation increase was not purely a holiday effect.

As this blog has noted previously China's CPI is not, contrary to claims to the contrary, closely linked to China's money supply data but it is extremely closely tied to international commodity prices. In this regard it is important to note that since December the annual change in international commodity prices has stopped falling. This may be seen clearly in the end of the decline in the year on year data for the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Spot Price Index – Figure 1.

[Related -Is a Bullish Reversal Brewing for Bond Fund TLT]

Furthermore year on year data somewhat flatter as they are affected by the base effects of the rapid rise in prices during the early part of 2011. If absolute price levels are analysed then commodity prices reached their recent minimum on 4 October 2011, since which they have risen by 8.2 per cent – Figure 2.

Figure 1

12 02 09 YoY

Figure 2

12 02 09 Index

 

Commodity prices, as always, show strong fluctuations and it would be too early to definitively state that a new round of commodity price inflation is taking place.


Next Page >>12
iOnTheMarket Premium
Advertisement

Advertisement


Comments Closed


rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageGreek Voters Say No, Yanis Varoufakis Says Bye—What Next?

Sunday’s referendum didn’t change much for Greece: It is still in limbo, and it is still too small to upend read on...

article imageIs a Bullish Reversal Brewing for Bond Fund TLT

With stocks testing support and threatening a possible breakdown (reversal), US Treasury prices (measured read on...

article imageIn A World Of Artificial Liquidity – Cash Is King

It's more crucial now than ever for people to consider extracting a portion of cash from their bank read on...

article imageDid The IMF Provide Support To Syriza?

The IMF published yesterday a preliminary analysis on the debt sustainability of the Greek read on...

Advertisement
Popular Articles

Advertisement
Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center



Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.