A: What worries me about tight inventory is whether the market can sustain months of solid deal volume as a declining trend of monthly new supply continues. But as of now the market is very active even as Manhattan supply is 7.4% lower than this time last year. Lets show you the latest #s including 101 new deals signed in the last two days alone!
Here is a quick look at the Manhattan Market Ticker (real-time listing updates table for subscribers
) showing you daily production across all REBNY member firms and their agents shared exclusive listings: *last check on the ticker was Tuesday, February 7th
We can quickly see that: BLACK BOX(shows new deal volume)
- 101 new deals were signed in the last two days - Weekly pace is at 260, putting us on par with the strongest months of the year - Monthly pace has risen from mid-high 600s to 824 over the last 10 days or so This is the tool that will let you see, in real-time, market tick ups and downs. Its the quickest and easiest way to quantify current market direction. RED BOX(shows new supply to hit the market)
- Weekly pace of 400 new units hitting the market - Monthly pace of 1,557 new units hitting the market NOTE ON 7-DAY & 30-DAY MOVING WINDOWS
: At all times, fresh data is coming in the front end while stale/obsolete data is going out the tail end. The result is 7-day snapshot and 30-day snapshot of inventory trends that update 7x a day. Focusing on supply for a moment, we can see 140+ new units to hit the market in the last few days, but we are still on a weekly and monthly pace to see around 1500-1600 new units come to market. For comparison, we can quickly go to the Monthly New Supply Bar Charts
to see how past February's production levels have been - while the month to month trend is great information to know we should always compare the current month to the same period 1,2,3, and 4 years prior to filter out seasonality.