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The Optimistic View Of Europe

 March 03, 2012 11:49 AM


Forget about the alligators. Let's talk about draining the swamp. There is a way out of this quagmire for Europe. Ken Rogoff, in an interview with Der Spiegel, believes that political integration (or a "United States of Europe") is closer than anyone expects:
SPIEGEL: Do you honestly believe that the countries in the euro zone can bring themselves to hand over that much more power to Brussels?


Rogoff: The terrible thing is that few countries in Europe seem genuinely prepared for that. Those politicians who know what is needed keep quiet, fearing opposition from the voters. But the pressure of this crisis will create a momentum whose scope and impact we cannot yet imagine. At the end of the day, the United States of Europe may well come about a lot quicker than many would have thought.

SPIEGEL: With all respect to your optimism, the Europeans are unlikely to play along with that. The popular opinion in most member states is that Europe has far too much power, not too little.

Rogoff: Europe is in an interim stage, quite similar to that in late 18th century America. The ratification of the United States constitution in 1788 was preceded by 12 years of a loose confederation, which sometimes worked but usually didn't. Europe is in a similar situation today. States are like people, it is difficult to sustain a stable half-marriage; either you go for it or you forget it.
Much of the latest eurozone crisis stems from the fact that there was economic integration without political integration. Rogoff believes that the European elite within the Community will take this latest crisis to push for greater integration.

This is all part of the Grand Plan that I wrote about before. Mario Draghi, in an interview with the WSJ, said that the steps include:
  1. Austerity, defined as lower government expenditures and lower taxes; followed by
  2. Structural reform, defined as the elimination of the European social model.
In the meantime, the ECB stand ready to provide the necessary tonic (such as LTRO) to smooth the transition as long as the eurozone was moving in the right direction.

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