The Federal Reserve will publish the results from its latest stress tests on 19 major U.S. banks. The goal is to make sure too big to fail financial institutions, would be capable of continuing to meet supervisory expectations for capital ratios even if stress conditions emerged, and the BHC (19 banks) did not reduce distributions.
In English, it essentially means if the economy went to hell again, the banks can continue with their planned cash outlays and not suck the economy into a black hole – like the Lehman collapse.
Banks have to provide Ben Bernanke a plan to survive the Federal Reserve's doomsday scenario of "a peak unemployment rate of 13 percent, a 50 percent drop in equity prices, and a 21 percent decline in housing prices." (Minus the stock prices, and using the real unemployment rate, those numbers aren't all that far off today's current picture.)
Based on the Fed's assessment, these institutions will receive a thumbs up or a mob-boss like demand for a do-over. Those that fall into the good graces of their unelected masters will have the OK to enhance shareholder value by raising dividends, and share re-purchase programs.
iStock is going to focus on the dividend part. By looking at the rules and the most recent financials for the banks in question, we want to see which companies have the greatest capacity to increase their dividends.
Here are the rules according to:
Federal Reserve System
Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review
Summary Instructions and Guidance
Section: 3.2.1
The Federal Reserve expects that capital plans will reflect conservative common dividend payout ratios. In particular, requests that imply common dividend payout ratios above 30 percent of projected after-tax net income available to common shareholders will receive particularly close scrutiny.
Investors hunting for banks that have the wherewithal to increase their dividend payouts might consider the companies with the lowest percentage common dividend payout ratios. For your convenience, iStock ranked the following table in lowest to highest for you
|
Company
|
Ticker
|
Net Income -
Taxes Paid/
Common Dividends Paid
|
Citigroup Inc | C | 0.80% |
Capital One Fin | COF | 2.80% |
Morgan Stanley | MS | 8.20% |
Keycorp New | KEY | 9.80% |
Suntrust Bks | STI | 9.80% |
Metlife Inc | MET | 11.30% |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 15.50% |
Wells Fargo-New | WFC | 15.60% |
Jpmorgan Chase | JPM | 16.00% |
Average | | 16.50% |
Amer Express Co | AXP | 17.10% |
State St Corp | STT | 18.40% |
Pnc Finl Svc Cp | PNC | 19.70% |
Fifth Third Bk | FITB | 19.80% |
Us Bancorp | USB | 19.90% |
Bank Of Ny Mell | BK | 22.70% |
Regions Finl Cp | RF | 26.60% |
Bank Of Amer Cp | BAC | 29.10% |
Bb&T Corp | BBT | 33.00% |
Results are based on the last reported numbers, and not projections. These numbers are subject to change and are believed to come from accurate sources. Only 18 banks are listed as Ally Bank doesn't trade common shares.