The story of Europe has been the story of two steps forward and one step back. Here are the two steps forward/
Since the eurozone crisis, the ECB has taken steps with its LTRO programs to stabilize the banking and financial system. Moreover, I wrote that Mario Draghi, on behalf of the eurocrats, outlined the Grand Plan
as a way to fix the long-term problems within the eurozone. The Grand Plan consisted of two steps, which sound like pages taken from the Maggie Thatcher playbook:
- Austerity in the form of "good austerity", defined as lower taxes and less government spending; and
- Structural reform, which is the European version of the China taking steps to smash the iron rice bowl, which translates to union busting and going after all of the entrenched interests of the old with their lifetime jobs and gold-plated pensions at the expense of the young jobless.
The one step back happens when Europe dilutes these grandiose object. In the wake of the German
and Dutch failure to hit austerity targets
, a step backward is inevitable.Time for Grand Plan 2.0
Most recently, the OECD warned that the eurozone debt crisis is far from over
. The organization indicated more work needed to be done, i.e. Grand Plan, and market confidence is fragile. At about the same time, Willem Buiter at Citigroup issued a warning on Spain
Spain is likely, in our view, to be pushed into a troika (EC, ECB, IMF) programme of some kind during 2012, possibly by losing access to market funding on affordable terms, but more likely by the ECB making a programme for the Spanish sovereign a condition for continued willingness to fund the Spanish banks, which are currently the main buyers of newly issued Spanish sovereign debt. The existing and likely near future EFSF/ESM and IMF financial facilities are unlikely to be sufficient to both fund the Spanish sovereign fully and leave enough financial ammunition in reserve to deal with possible sovereign financial emergencies in Italy or in the ‘soft-core' of the euro area. The Spanish sovereign would therefore likely continue to fund itself at least partly in the markets even if it comes under a programme.