Join        Login             Stock Quote

5 Of My 2012 Stock Predictions Have Already Come True...

 April 05, 2012 12:08 PM

Thus far in 2012, investors have been getting a real sense of deja vu. Just as was the case a year ago, the economic data have been increasingly bright, while the Federal Reserve's programs have been providing liquidity to the market. This helped the S&P 500 rise a solid 12% in the first quarter of 2012, mimicking impressive early returns in 2011. Yet as the chart below shows, the rest of 2011 wasn't quite so kind to the market.

 Economic data started to appear less robust as the year wore on, and investors grew concerned that the United States may slip back into recession.

Whether 2012 turns out to run its course on a brighter note will depend on a range of factors, some of which I touched on in December 2011. Back then I identified 10 key factors that could affect stocks and the U.S. economy this year (part 2 of that article is here). Some of these bold predictions have already come to pass and some still may.

Here's a fresh update on my outlook...

What's coming true
Prediction 1: Jobless claims trend well lower -- CORRECT.

Prediction 5: States stop the bleeding -- MOSTLY CORRECT.
The risk of a major state default no longer appears likely. About 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year should help partially repair state budget gaps.

Prediction 6: Individual investors re-embrace equities -- MOSTLY CORRECT.
Monthly trading data at online brokerages has been firming, though equity mutual funds are not yet seeing sharp inflows.

Prediction 8: Oil prices start to move toward the $100 mark -- CORRECT.

Prediction 9: Latin American stock markets post a fresh surge  -- CORRECT.

Too soon to tell
Prediction 7: Health care reform starts to take effect.

Next Page >>123


Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageTackling China's Debt Problem: Can Debt-Equity Conversions Help?

China’s high and rising corporate debt problem and how best to address it has received much attention read on...

article imageWill Job Growth Kill The Bear-Market Signal For Stocks?

It’s all about jobs now. Actually, it’s always been about jobs. But the stakes are even higher—perhaps more read on...

article imageAutomating Ourselves To Unemployment

In this current era of central planning, malincentives abound. We raced to frack as fast we could for the read on...

article imageFed: Waiting For June… Or Godot?

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday, as widely expected. But the possibility of a read on...

Popular Articles

Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center

Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.