Driven by emerging markets, global PC shipments are estimated to grow 4.4 percent in 2012. India PC shipments will witness 17 percent growth in 2012, which is somewhat attributable to the Government's programs to provide laptops to students.
Some Indian states have offered laptops to college and higher secondary students as election promises. Tamil Nadu, in the southern part of India, was the first one to make such a promise. Now, Uttar Pradesh, in the northern part of India, has joined to offer this freebie to students.
While estimates are yet to come from Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu is likely to place shipments of 920K units in 2012. Excluding this, India PC shipment is predicted to witness 8.4 percent upside in 2012, data from Gartner suggests. Total PC shipment is predicted to be 12.5 million units.
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A key aspect of the survey is that consumers are not showing enough interest in investing in new and advanced technology, which comes with a premium price. This is because of higher inflation and a surge in living costs. The combo forces consumers to extend the life of their existing computing devices.
The launch of Ultrabooks is not likely to alter the consumers' preference significantly as the Indian PC market is more sensitive to price points than adopting innovative technologies. It will be interesting to see how the Indian market reacts to Windows 8 and whether Ultrabooks change consumer perception.
The current expectation is that tablets will see more adoption than 2011, but will not have any significant effect on PCs. This is due to the fact that tables are used as second or third devices only.
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Though commercial spending of large businesses may remain stable, the uncertain worldwide economic condition may soften the trend. Indian budget proposals normally encourage purchasing electronic items, but the current year's proposal of lifting excise duty has dampened the spirit of new consumer demand due to additional price burdens.
While the year 2012 is expected to see global PC shipments growth of 4.4 percent to 368 million units, 2013 is projected to witness an accelerated growth rate of 8.7 percent and PC shipments to reach 400 million.
Global PC markets will be driven by emerging markets in the near and long-term. Developed nations shipments are somewhat slack in the wake of economic sluggishness and the advent of tablet. The matured market may see more replacements than fresh investments. Due to very low PC penetration levels, emerging markets will be the main focus to drive growth.
Though pricing point holds the key, India offers significant growth opportunities for PC market since the penetration level at the semi urban and urban level is low.