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Oppenheimer Trims Price Target On Tempur-Pedic (TPX) To $90, Says Thesis Intact

 April 20, 2012 10:30 AM

(By Balachander S) Oppenheimer & Co. trimmed its price target on shares of Tempur-Pedic International Inc. (NYSE:TPX) to $90 from $92, saying the company's quarterly results were largely mixed relative to expectations, and TPX failed to raise full-year guidance for the first time in over two years.

"However, our bullish thesis on the name remains intact, and we would use the expected weakness in the shares as a buying opportunity," the brokerage wrote in a note. Oppenheimer rates the stock as "Outperform".

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Oppenheimer believes the Lexington, Kentucky-based maker of bedding products is poised to benefit significantly from the ongoing shift in the global mattress market away from traditional spring technology and toward specialty beds, both from a sales and margin perspective, which should drive very healthy top- and bottom-line growth and cash generation for the foreseeable future.

The brokerage lowered its 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates by $0.05 each, to $3.95 and $4.75, respectively.

"Our slightly more muted outlook stems from a couple of factors weighing on results, both of which we alluded to above, with the impact most acute in 2Q," the brokerage said. For example, the accelerated rollout of the Simplicity bed is likely to result in higher start-up costs and lower margin floor model shipments, while recent commodity cost inflation should lead to a sequential decline in both gross and operating margin in the quarter, Oppenheimer noted.

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The company reported 1Q EPS of 86 cents, up 26 percent year-over-year and ahead of both Oppenheimer and consensus estimates of $0.84. Consolidated net sales increased 18 percent to $384 million, which was modestly above the brokerage's estimate of $383 million, reflecting continued overall market share gains and increased distribution.

TPX also reaffirmed its prior 2012 guidance, including EPS of $3.80-$3.95, which represents an increase of 19 percent - 24 percent over last year's $3.18 but is below both our prior estimate of $4.00 and consensus of $3.97. Oppenheimer expects this to be viewed by investors as a disappointment, as it has been quite some time—over two years, in fact—since TPX has not raised full-year guidance.

On Friday, the stock retreated 22.2 percent to trade at $65.12. Over the past year, shares have been trading in the range of $46.53 to $87.43.



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