Join        Login             Stock Quote

Q2 Markets: Don’t Expect Smooth Sailing (DVYE, IDV, LQD)

 April 24, 2012 03:18 PM

(By Russ Koesterich ) After a disappointing, frustrating and, at times, terrifying 2011, patient investors were rewarded with a stellar start to 2012. In the first quarter, equity markets banked a performance that would have been respectable for the full year. Developed markets gained nearly 11%, while emerging markets advanced more than 13%. However, equity markets have lost some steam in recent days, and now many investors are wondering if there's anything to look forward to in the second quarter.

[Related -Greek Voters Say No, Yanis Varoufakis Says Bye—What Next?]

The good news is that even after the rally, valuations still appear reasonable. Developed markets are currently trading at around 14x earnings, no longer a screaming bargain but below historic averages. Emerging markets, meanwhile, are even cheaper, trading at less than 12x trailing earnings. In addition, inflationary pressures remain well contained and while last Friday's disappointing employment report reminded everyone that the recovery will continue to be slow and uneven, both the US and global economies are stabilizing.

That said, I don't expect markets in the second quarter to be all smooth sailing. While markets can still move higher, gains are likely to be predicated on earnings growth, which in turn will depend on further improvement in the global economy. And even if the economy continues to stabilize, we're unlikely to see another round of quantitative easing until at least July as the Fed's Operation Twist is set to continue through June.

Without the sedative of easier monetary policy, markets are likely to be more volatile. I expect volatility to be in the high teens to low 20s, above the mid-teen levels that characterized the first quarter.

Next Page >>12
iOnTheMarket Premium


Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageGreek Voters Say No, Yanis Varoufakis Says Bye—What Next?

Sunday’s referendum didn’t change much for Greece: It is still in limbo, and it is still too small to upend read on...

article imageIs a Bullish Reversal Brewing for Bond Fund TLT

With stocks testing support and threatening a possible breakdown (reversal), US Treasury prices (measured read on...

article imageIn A World Of Artificial Liquidity – Cash Is King

It's more crucial now than ever for people to consider extracting a portion of cash from their bank read on...

article imageDid The IMF Provide Support To Syriza?

The IMF published yesterday a preliminary analysis on the debt sustainability of the Greek read on...

Popular Articles

Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center

Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.