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April In The Books - Pending Pipeline Strong For Future Reports

 May 03, 2012 05:53 AM

A: With April in the books, lets take a look at how Manhattan produced in the month and how it compares to past April performances and where we came from since March. With the market continuing to see a very strong pace of new deal volume, the pending pipeline of closings will likely power solid Q2 and Q3 reports -- Due to the lag in ACRIS filings, I would put my money on Q3 being the 2012 report that truly captures what Manhattan is experiencing right now in the field. Lets discuss and quantify these statements with charts. First, lets take a look at how many contracts Manhattan managed to produce in the month of April, 2012 -- and how that compares to past April's going back to 2008: Now, lets break down how the month of April performed compared to past April's, and see how much supply we had at month's end -- we should always look at pending sales in relation to active supply trends because the two are related. Quick Tip: If supply rises big time and the market produces 1,164 new deals (as it did in April), it's not as strong a market signal than if supply fell big time and still managed to produce the same amount of new deals signed! In the case of rising supply conditions, more inventory somewhat mutes the effect of rising deal volume. Whereas in tight inventory conditions, it will get more & more difficult for the market to sustain monthly deal volume this high; higher than 1,100+ new deals signed a month which is a very strong pace. APRIL New Deal Vol Since 2008 - Active Supply at the TimeApril 2008 --> 1,182 new deals signed - 7,072 active units for sale at timeApril 2009 --> 642 new deals signed - 9,455 active units for saleApril 2010 --> 1,150 new deals signed - 7,791 active units for saleApril 2011 --> 1,006 new deals signed - 7,886 active units for saleApril 2012 --> 1,164 new deals signed - 6,905 active units for sale It really helps to put our market trends in perspective when you look at both supply and demand trends in relation to each other, over time.

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