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An Earnings Sandwich

 May 09, 2012 08:19 AM


(By Fisher Investments) Greek negotiations, take two

Less than 24 hours after Greece's election, New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras conceded his efforts to form a coalition. Fellow pro-bailout party PASOK tentatively agreed to partner, but all other party leaders refused, hoping they can form an anti-austerity coalition and renegotiate bailout terms with the EU/IMF. Tuesday, leftist Syriza's leader, Alexis Tsipras, began that quest.

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He has three days, but he may find himself as frustrated as Samaras. The anti-austerity parties have 151 seats—exactly what they need for a majority—but it's tough to imagine all reaching a power-sharing agreement. Syriza and the Communists have decades of bad blood, far-right Golden Dawn may be too toxic to touch and centrist Independent Greeks have little-to-no ideological overlap with extremists on either end. A leftist coalition seems equally difficult, considering they'd need PASOK's participation. Granted, stranger things have happened, but Tsipras could very well exhaust his options and pass the mandate to PASOK, which would pick up where Samaras left off.

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If neither Syriza, PASOK nor President Karolos Papoulias can broker a power-sharing deal, Greece votes again—tentatively on June 17, 13 days before the EU/IMF's deadline for €11.5 billion in budget cuts.


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