logo
  Join        Login             Stock Quote

Is The Decline In New Jobless Claims Losing Momentum?

 May 24, 2012 12:50 PM


(By Capital Spectator) For the fourth time in as many weeks, today's update on initial jobless claims shows that new unemployment filings are hugging the 370,000 neighborhood on a seasonally adjusted basis. The fact that claims aren't rising is an encouraging sign, of course. But the resistance at the 370,000 level, if it rolls on, will raise more questions about the labor market's capacity for growth.

For the moment, however, the case for optimism is still stronger. New claims last week remained near the lowest levels since the recession was formally declared null and void as of mid-2009. That's a sign that suggests job growth continues to forge on. Indeed, one good report and new claims could touch a new post-recession low.

[Related -Happy Birthday, Moore's Law - Pearls of Wisdom for Investors]

A crucial bit of supporting evidence for the bullish case is the ongoing year-over-year decline in new claims before seasonal adjustment. As the second chart below shows, new claims have been falling by 10% to 20% over last four weeks on an unadjusted basis, with last week's tally posting a 13% drop vs. the same week a year ago. In other words, nothing seems to have changed--the decline continues.

[Related -Index Investing Is Not Inherently Socialistic]

The weekly seasonally adjusted figures of late appear to be stalled, but that could just be noise. History reminds us that it's usually dangerous to read too much into a few data points on a weekly basis for this series. A more robust analysis comes from analyzing the annual trend, which effectively tells us to think positively until there's stronger evidence otherwise in the weekly data.

"We haven't seen very real improvement this year, but claims are not at catastrophic levels," says David Semmens, a senior U.S. economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. "They have come down. The labor market is still in a point of flux, but it's doing OK."

iOnTheMarket Premium
Advertisement

Advertisement


Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
 

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageUpbeat Forecasts For US Housing Sales In March

The Fiscal Times advises that the “the housing market is about to perk up.” One of the reasons for the read on...

article imageHappy Birthday, Moore's Law - Pearls of Wisdom for Investors

As Moore’s Law turns 50, we reflect on technology’s incredible history and limitless read on...

article imageIndex Investing Is Not Inherently Socialistic

How does capital get allocated to the public stock read on...

article imageDon't Let Fear of a 'Grexit' Keep You Out of European Stocks

After nearly three years of extremely weak economic growth, the European Central Bank is finally delivering read on...

Advertisement
Popular Articles

Advertisement
Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center



Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.