(By Rich Bieglmeier) Investors could be nibbling on the battered Digital Generation, Inc.
), bottom fishing looking for the big one that doesn't get away. Last week, buyers accumulated 2.2% of the advertisements delivery company's market cap.
Digital's share price has been under duress for more than a year, cratering to high single digits from $33.17. The turnaround in price to today's $12 and change started on June 6th after it was revealed the company rejected a takeover offer. See, the fish are biting.
According to Reuters, Extreme Reach offered more than $20 for DGIT. Perhaps Extreme will reach for the right bait next time? Or another will throw their line in the water as the article says a numbers of firms might be casting into the same hole. Perhaps, that's why Digital turned down $20; another offer could be on its way?
But how much more than $20 will depend on the eye of the new holder. The rumored offer for the advertising distribution company is more than three times Digital's enterprise value of $6.11. However, $20 is just a nose hair above the company's $18.96 book value.
iStock thinks the best shareholders and takeout speculators can hope for is 1.5 times book, putting the max pricetag at $28.44; although, the "Graham Number" is closer to $15 – buyer beware.
If the rumors turn to dust, the stock is currently trading at 13.10 times 2013 earnings estimates while analysts are calling for profits to grow by 33% to 93 cents. The discount certainly gives DGIT shares plenty of space to move higher without a buyout.
However, revenue is only targeted to increase by 4.8%. With earnings growth and sales growth estimates in mind, iStock can envision DGIT trading up to 22 times eps; 93 cents times 22 equals a 12 to 18 month price target of $20.46. Even at the current industry average P/E of almost 27, Digital Generation price could top out at $26ish.
At the moment, there is a buyout premium built into DGIT's price of about $2. If nothing happens in the next couple of days to weeks, iStock believes the extra money will vanish, and investors can expect to see $10 once again.
If we were Digital Generation's takeover advisor, Goldman Sachs, our advice would be to take $25-$28, if you can get it, and run.