(By Mani) Automaker Ford Motor Co.'s
) U.S market share has been very disappointing as their year-to-date market share is 120 basis points (bps) lower than their 2011 share, hurt by discontinued products, high industry fleet mix, and inventory shortages.
However, the share drought in the U.S. would soon be a think of the past as new models, seasonal increase in truck mix, and the seasonal decline in fleet mix would help the company regain its share in the U.S. auto market in the second half of the year.
"We remain confident that Ford's share will recover in the second half of the year. The biggest drivers will likely be the Escape and Fusion launches. The Interceptor versions of the Taurus and Explorer should also help offset some of the Crown Vic discontinuation," UBS analyst Colin Langan wrote in a note to clients.
Ford's share is expected to increase 90bps in the second half of the year to 16.3 percent from 15.4 percent year to date, helped by the launch of the Escape and Fusion, Ford's 2nd and 3rd best selling vehicles, coupled with the Taurus and Fiesta.
The expected Fusion and Escape gains will be driven by their new launches, which would be at minimum return to their segment share to 2011 levels.
"We also expect the Taurus to gain share as the Interceptor police car version rolls out. Lastly, the Fiesta will likely regain some ground in the compact segment after a rather large YTD loss (segment is only 2.6% of industry)," Langan added.
The seasonal improvement in truck mix could boost Ford's share by 60bps in the second half of 2012. Over the last decade, truck mix had increased about 180bps from the first half to the second half, and the mix shift is expected be larger than average this year.