(By Karl Denninger)
Income and outlays eh?Personal income increased $25.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $18.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $4.7 billion, or less than 0.1 percent. In April, personal income increased $29.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $19.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, and PCE increased $16.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.
So we have basically no growth in income (and it's no real growth) and no growth in expenditures eh?
But they claim that "real" PCI and PCE were both up? Bah -- that's all gasoline, or so we're supposed to believe.
Let's look inside.
Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- decreased $7.0 billion in May, in contrast to an increase of $13.9 billion in April. PCE decreased $4.7 billion, in contrast to an increase of $16.2 billion.
That is not good.
I wouldn't call this "recession now", but it is not a strong report at all.
What's going on today in the market is all about the EU "summit", wihch is rather funny in and of itself. The PCE report didn't move anything, really, and the internals show why -- there was deterioration internally, but realistically it's not a disaster.
Yet.