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The Draghi Point

 July 31, 2012 02:16 PM

(By Michael Harris) "The Lestrygonians and the Cyclopes, a savage Poseidon you will not encounter, if you do not carry them within your spirit, if your spirit does not place them before you." (From Ithaca, by C. P. Cavafy). 

Like many other important "points", like for example the water freezing point, now there is the "Draghi point". This is the point where if promises are backed by solid action good things will happen but if they are not, hell may break loose. The thing is that the market did not establish or even did not ask  for this nasty inflection point. It was Mr. Draghi himself that did it. Let us hope he knew what he was doing.

In other words, it was Mr. Draghi who placed the alternatives before us and now we will find out whether he can actually act independently as his charter implies, or the ECB is controlled by the politicians.

The "Draghi point" is shown on the daily S&P 500 chart. It is a possible inflection point. That is the point were verbal intervention and its effects stop and delivery starts. If delivery fails, the 200-day moving average Cyclopes are waiting for the market. I guess the Lestrygonians are even lower.

A message to technical analysts: at this point and up until the situation is clear and we find out whether Mr. Draghi can deliver or not, technical analysis can be very tricky. This is a period of uncertainty and nobody, even Mr. Draghi I believe, knows what will happen.

Disclosure: no relevant position at the time of this post.


Rich
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