(By Mani) The underperformance of Dicks Sporting Goods, Inc.
) shares on the second quarter report was due to a strong run up in the stock before the call as comp expectations started the fact that new full year guidance was below consensus and perhaps the decline in traffic.
Dick's Sporting Goods earned $53.7 million, or 43 cents per share, down from $73.8 million, or 59 cents per share in the year ago quarter. Excluding items, it reported earnings of 65 cents per share, topping Street view by a penny.
Net sales for the second quarter of 2012 increased by 10 percent to $1.4 billion due primarily to a 3.8 percent increase in consolidated same store sales and the opening of new stores. Analysts expected $1.44 billion for the quarter.
For the third-quarter, the company anticipates reporting consolidated earnings per share of about 36 cents, in line with Street view. Consolidated same store sales are currently expected to increase approximately 4 percent compared to a 4.1 percent increase last year.
For fiscal 2012, the company sees non-GAAP earnings per share of about $2.47 to $2.51. Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $2.51 per share for fiscal 2012. Comps are expected to increase about 4 to 5 percent on a 52-week to 52-week comparative basis.
"We believe the positive 3Q12 comp guidance of 4% versus consensus of 2.7% as well as the CEO's bullish commentary regarding early back to school on the call should mean that the quarterly comps will accelerate, which is when we want to add to positions," Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Baker wrote in a note to clients.
It's also worth mentioning that Dicks Sporting Goods has beaten their EPS guidance in 13 of the past 14 quarters and comps in 3 of the past 4 quarters.
Meanwhile, new store productivity consistently in the 95-105 percent range, which indicates that the company is underpenetrated. In addition, strong product cycles particularly in footwear and apparel, which drives solid comps.
Strong vendor relationships which leads to product exclusives and a defensible product mix against on line only competitors. This also drives incremental sales as the company continues to roll out its store within a store program with Nike, Under Armour and The North Face.
Inventory management improvements particularly around how on line sales are delivered, which will help gross margins and the company's best sales categories are its highest margin categories.
"Longer term, in our base case, we see earnings power of $3.97 in 2015, which is what yields our 18% EPS growth rate. But, in our more bullish case, which has 50 bps better annual comps in the 4.4% range instead of 3.9% and another 50 bps of gross margin, we get long term earnings power of $4.25 on 20% annual sales growth," Baker added.