(By Rich Bieglmeier) Globecomm Systems Inc. (GCOM
) will release its fiscal 2012 fourth quarter financial results after the market close on Tuesday, September 11, 2012 and will host a conference call on Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 10:00 a.m. EST to discuss the financial results.
Wall Street anticipates that GMOM will earn $0.20 for its 4th quarter. iStock expects the global provider of satellite-based managed network solutions to report earnings that will exceed Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is 25 cents – a 5 cent upside surprise.
GCOM has bypassed the street's consensus view seven quarters in a row with an average surprise of 38%. Unfortunately, the last three surprises have seen the stock fall 13.5%, 5.4%, and 1.2%.
Prior to the trio of earnings performance missteps, Globecomm shareholders beamed as the stock price popped seven consecutive quarters in the days surrounding earnings. The gains delivered a minimum return of 5.5% and a max of 17.10%. Five of the seven positive runs were in excess of 10% with an average of 125%.
If the stock can get back on track following next Tuesday's announcement, there is money to be made here.
Based on what we see on GCOM's chart, a solid quarterly checkup with robust, forward guidance could help push shares towards $14. After falling on hard times from the end of April through the start of September, Globecomm shares have recovered.
The recent upswing from a late June low of $9.44 has the stock price and short-term moving averages charging away for the 50-day mark. The fascinating thing is that most of the recovery occurred on strong volume, at a time when volume in the overall market was vanishing.
Typically, appreciation follows accumulation and maybe GCOM is ready to end its three quarter post-earnings losing streak.
Fundamentally, the stock price has room for expansion as shares trade at 10.92 times forward earnings, at just 76 cents per share in revenue, and sports an attractive PEG ratio of 0.73.
Compared to the industry average P/E of 20.82, price-to-sale of 1.33, and a negative PEG ratio, Globecomm Systems Inc. (GCOM) looks attractive heading into next week's earnings announcement.