by Roger Conrad, contributing editor Personal Finance
Utilities' formula for long-term growth is to invest in vital
infrastructure and operate those assets in an efficient manner that
generates a solid return on capital deployed. This simple strategy
helped keep sector dividends rising during the credit crunch and
recession of 2007-09.
Utilities expect to spend at least $2.4
trillion on power, gas, communications and water systems between now and
2030. That's a lot of fuel for further dividend boosts, which push
stock prices higher.
Companies strive to earn a reasonable return on capital expenditures.
Those that meet this challenge will prosper and build shareholder
wealth; those that can't will become graveyards of capital for the
unwary.
Sorting winners from losers is even more complicated
today because large pieces of power, gas and even water industries are
no longer operated as integrated monopolies as they were in decades
past. Today, that means scrutinizing the unregulated side.
The key weakness at
Exelon (
EXC)
is that wholesale prices are tied to falling natural gas prices, a
trend that has weighed on the company's results and stock price.
Fortunately,
Exelon's successful acquisition of Constellation Energy Group for $7.7
billion earlier this year reduced the impact of a feared "earnings
cliff," as Exelon's selling price hedges come off.
That's why we expect the stock's projected earnings per share (EPS) of
$2.55 to $2.85 for 2012 to represent a bottom for the year, even though
they'll still comfortably cover the 5.5 percent dividend. Exelon Corp.
-- a new addition to our Income Portfolio -- is a buy up to 45.
Atlantic Power (
AT) derives all of its income from selling power into wholesale markets throughout North America.
Fortunately,
almost all capacity is locked up under long-term contracts. And thanks
to last year's merger with the former Capital Power LP, the firm has
diversified its revenue streams.
Atlantic's second-quarter cash
flow rose 70 percent from the same quarter last year. The company also
expects a fourth-quarter opening of a major wind plant in Oklahoma
anchored by a 20-year contract with OGE Energy Corp.
Atlantic
pays dividends from cash flows rather than EPS. That enables the company
to dish out more aggressively, with a 90 percent to 97 percent payout
ratio expected for full-year 2012 and a yield in excess of 8 percent.
Atlantic
also owns the regulated Path 15 power line in California, while Exelon
runs power distribution operations in Illinois, Maryland and
Pennsylvania. Both companies' dividends held in 2008-09, with Atlantic
raising its payout in late 2011. Atlantic Power Corp's American
depositary receipt is a buy below $16.
NRG Energy (
NRG)
is a third unregulated power stock to consider. The company is
attempting to acquire battered rival Genon Energyin a deal that will
make it by far America's biggest producer of wholesale electricity. That
deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2013.
In the
meantime, NRG has initiated a quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share for
the first time in its history. After doubling its cash flow from
year-ago levels, NRG Energy covered this inaugural payout by an ample
margin.
As with all wholesale power producers, NRG's stock has
suffered the past five years, losing more than half its value. But with
well-run assets and a solid balance sheet, it's poised for a reversal of
fortunes. Buy NRG Energy up to $22.
Unregulated earnings mean
these stocks are riskier than the more regulated utilities, but this
risk is well reflected in their stock prices, making Exelon, Atlantic
and NRG excellent fresh horses for another utility stock run.