This is the fifth time since last June that MSFT is testing its 200-day simple moving average. In general, the higher the number of testes in a given time period, the higher the probability that there will be a downward violation and a start of a downtrend.
Yesterday MSFT closed at $30.16, just 2 cents above its 200-day simple moving average at $30.14. It may be seen from the above daily chart that the 200-day simple moving average has been acting as protection against a violation of the lower trendline of the up-channel that started in June of this year. Any violation of the double support – SMA(200) plus up-trendline – could signal a move towards the lows of June near $28.30. Notice however that the successive tests of the SMA(200) have created a series of intermediate possible support levels in between that must be also tested.
I am looking at MSFT for any hints about short-term market direction because it is the third largest US company with a $252.84B capitalization as of yesterday's close, right after AAPL and XOM.
Disclosure: no relevant position at the time of this post and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours..